Putting Up Numbers· Soccer

Arsenal @ Nottingham Forest

Sun, Oct 18, 2026

Arsenal 1, Nottingham Forest 0

Arsenal at Nottingham Forest: against expected, a game, this season, This game
a gameArsenal1 gameNottingham Forest1 game
Goals−0.45−1.35
Goals conceded−1.20−0.54
Expected goals−0.01−0.19
Expected goals conceded−0.75−0.52
Shots−2.0+1.6
Shots conceded−3.1−4.9
Points+1.50−1.02

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

Arsenal

Analysis

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Nottingham Forest

  • Nottingham Forest’s shots conceded were 5.0 higher after an international break than between breaks against expected over its last 75 games, 1st of 74 teams.fact · rankedthe split →This game: 2.2 under expected.

Arsenal

  • Arsenal had won 8 straight at home.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.

The series

If you squint

  • At home, Nottingham Forest’s goals were 1.32 under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 0.89 under expected.
  • Arsenal had won 8 of its last 10.countits form →Now 9 of 11.
  • After a Champions League game, Arsenal’s goals conceded were 1.05 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 0.89 under expected.
  • On the road, Arsenal’s goals were 0.58 under expected in 4 games. 4 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 0.52 under expected.

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Oct 18, 2026at Nottingham ForestArsenal 1, Nottingham Forest 0
Jan 17, 2026at Nottingham ForestNottingham Forest 0, Arsenal 0
Sep 13, 2025at ArsenalArsenal 3, Nottingham Forest 0
Feb 26, 2025at Nottingham ForestNottingham Forest 0, Arsenal 0
Nov 23, 2024at ArsenalArsenal 3, Nottingham Forest 0
Jan 30, 2024at Nottingham ForestArsenal 2, Nottingham Forest 1
Aug 12, 2023at ArsenalArsenal 2, Nottingham Forest 1
May 20, 2023at Nottingham ForestNottingham Forest 1, Arsenal 0
Oct 30, 2022at ArsenalArsenal 5, Nottingham Forest 0

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 17, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
  • A game with no box score sits out.

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