Putting Up Numbers· Soccer

Manchester City @ Nottingham Forest

Sat, Nov 7 · Premier League · The City Ground

The odds have it Nottingham Forest 1.11, Manchester City 1.91.Expected goals from DraftKings’ closing odds on ESPN’s match pages, as of Nov 4. Odds move until kickoff.

Manchester City at Nottingham Forest: against expected, a game, this season, All games
a gameManchester City12 gamesNottingham Forest9 games
+0.83−0.88
−0.30−0.18
+0.67+0.22
−0.50−0.38
+2.8+2.8
−3.9−4.0
+0.80−0.68

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game. Lit is among the ten biggest either way. Tap a row for the games.

Analysis

What’s true going in. Each line says how it stood up; you judge.

The series

If you squint

  • At home, Nottingham Forest’s goals are 1.21 under expected in 4 games. 4 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →
  • Manchester City has won 7 of its last 10.countits form →
  • On the road, Manchester City’s goals conceded are 1.01 under expected in 5 games. A −1.41 difference in goals conceded over expected away vs at home is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were away and it comes up 15 times in 100.thinthe split →

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Mar 4, 2026at Manchester CityNottingham Forest 2, Manchester City 2
Dec 27, 2025at Nottingham ForestManchester City 2, Nottingham Forest 1
Mar 8, 2025at Nottingham ForestNottingham Forest 1, Manchester City 0
Dec 4, 2024at Manchester CityManchester City 3, Nottingham Forest 0
Apr 28, 2024at Nottingham ForestManchester City 2, Nottingham Forest 0
Sep 23, 2023at Manchester CityManchester City 2, Nottingham Forest 0
Feb 18, 2023at Nottingham ForestNottingham Forest 1, Manchester City 1
Aug 31, 2022at Manchester CityManchester City 6, Nottingham Forest 0

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • A game with no box score sits out.

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