Nottingham Forest’s shots conceded after an international break and between breaks
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Nottingham Forest was 4.4 shots over after an international break and 0.4 shots under between breaks over its last 75 games, 5 games against 59. The plain averages are 19.2 and 12.7, a difference of 6.5. All 3 games without Neco Williams were between breaks. All 14 games without Murillo were between breaks. All 3 games without Nikola Milenkovic were between breaks.
Nottingham Forest’s +4.7 after an international break vs between breaks over expected ranks 2nd of the 73 teams with 5 games on each side over their last 75 games.
shots conceded a game over expected
A +4.7 difference in shots conceded over expected after an international break vs between breaks is unusual: shuffle which games were after an international break and it comes up 2 times in 100.
A +6.5 difference in shots conceded after an international break vs between breaks is rare: shuffle which games were after an international break and it comes up once in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | Shots against | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 2024 | vs Newcastle United | L | 17 | 13.2 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Arsenal | L | 19 | 15.4 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Ipswich Town | W | 7 | 10.2 | |
| Dec 4, 2024 | @ Manchester City | L | 18 | 17.2 | |
| Dec 7, 2024 | @ Manchester United | W | 18 | 15.2 | |
| Dec 14, 2024 | vs Aston Villa | W | 8 | 12.8 | |
| Dec 21, 2024 | @ Brentford | W | 7 | 14.1 | |
| Dec 26, 2024 | vs Tottenham Hotspur | W | 12 | 12.8 | |
| Dec 29, 2024 | @ Everton | W | 13 | 12.5 | |
| Jan 6, 2025 | @ Wolverhampton Wanderers | W | 12 | 13.3 | |
| Jan 14, 2025 | vs Liverpool | T | 22 | 15.6 | |
| Jan 19, 2025 | vs Southampton | W | 10 | 9.4 | |
| Jan 25, 2025 | @ AFC Bournemouth | L | 15 | 16.8 | |
| Feb 1, 2025 | vs Brighton & Hove Albion | W | 10 | 13.7 | |
| Feb 15, 2025 | @ Fulham | L | 23 | 14.9 | |
| Feb 23, 2025 | @Newcastle United | L | 12 | 15.6 | |
| Feb 26, 2025 | vsArsenal | T | 13 | 13.6 | |
| Mar 8, 2025 | vsManchester City | W | 14 | 15.2 | |
| Mar 15, 2025 | @Ipswich Town | W | 11 | 12.1 | |
| Apr 1, 2025 | vsManchester United | W | 23 | 12.9 | |
| Apr 5, 2025 | @Aston Villa | L | 17 | 14.5 | |
| Apr 12, 2025 | vsEverton | L | 13 | 10.3 | |
| Apr 21, 2025 | @Tottenham Hotspur | W | 22 | 14.4 | |
| May 1, 2025 | vsBrentford | L | 11 | 11.7 | |
| May 5, 2025 | @ Crystal Palace | T | 20 | 14.9 | |
| May 11, 2025 | vs Leicester City | T | 10 | 9.2 | |
| May 18, 2025 | @ West Ham United | W | 16 | 14.2 | |
| May 25, 2025 | vs Chelsea | L | 6 | 15.4 | |
| Aug 17, 2025 | vsBrentford | W | 10 | 10.4 | |
| Aug 24, 2025 | @Crystal Palace | T | 8 | 14.0 | |
| Aug 31, 2025 | vsWest Ham United | L | 12 | 10.4 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @Arsenal | L | 16 | 15.9 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Burnley | T | 12 | 11.9 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs Sunderland | L | 11 | 10.2 | |
| Oct 5, 2025 | @Newcastle United | L | 18 | 14.9 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vsChelsea | L | 17 | 12.4 | |
| Oct 26, 2025 | @AFC Bournemouth | L | 13 | 15.8 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vsManchester United | T | 18 | 14.6 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | vs Leeds United | W | 10 | 12.2 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @Liverpool | W | 21 | 17.5 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | vsBrighton & Hove Albion | L | 17 | 12.2 | |
| Dec 3, 2025 | @Wolverhampton Wanderers | W | 5 | 12.5 | |
| Dec 6, 2025 | @Everton | L | 11 | 13.4 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | vsTottenham Hotspur | W | 6 | 11.2 | |
| Dec 22, 2025 | @Fulham | L | 11 | 14.9 | |
| Dec 27, 2025 | vsManchester City | L | 16 | 14.3 | |
| Dec 30, 2025 | vsEverton | L | 11 | 10.8 | |
| Jan 3, 2026 | @Aston Villa | L | 11 | 14.9 | |
| Jan 6, 2026 | @West Ham United | W | 14 | 12.9 | |
| Jan 17, 2026 | vsArsenal | T | 15 | 13.4 | |
| Jan 25, 2026 | @Brentford | W | 10 | 13.0 | |
| Feb 1, 2026 | vsCrystal Palace | T | 14 | 11.0 | |
| Feb 6, 2026 | @Leeds United | L | 14 | 14.6 | |
| Feb 11, 2026 | vsWolverhampton Wanderers | T | 7 | 9.7 | |
| Feb 22, 2026 | vsLiverpool | L | 10 | 15.4 | |
| Mar 1, 2026 | @Brighton & Hove Albion | L | 14 | 15.0 | |
| Mar 4, 2026 | @Manchester City | T | 21 | 16.7 | |
| Mar 15, 2026 | vsFulham | T | 6 | 12.5 | |
| Mar 22, 2026 | @Tottenham Hotspur | W | 14 | 13.5 | |
| Apr 12, 2026 | vsAston Villa | T | 12 | 12.2 | |
| Apr 19, 2026 | vsBurnley | W | 4 | 9.6 | |
| Apr 24, 2026 | @Sunderland | W | 14 | 12.7 | |
| May 4, 2026 | @Chelsea | W | 21 | 14.9 | |
| May 10, 2026 | vsNewcastle United | T | 16 | 12.4 | |
| May 17, 2026 | @Manchester United | L | 29 | 16.7 | |
| May 24, 2026 | vsAFC Bournemouth | T | 17 | 12.9 | |
| Aug 22, 2026 | vsLeeds United | L | 11 | 9.2 | |
| Aug 29, 2026 | @Liverpool | T | 13 | 14.3 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsTottenham Hotspur | T | 12 | 11.7 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @Aston Villa | W | 7 | 12.4 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Coventry City | L | 10 | 8.7 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @Crystal Palace | L | 13 | 9.1 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vsArsenal | L | 9 | 11.2 | |
| Oct 23, 2026 | @Ipswich Town | T | 7 | 11.1 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @Brentford | L | 7 | 14.2 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 1.1 in 2024-25, minus 1.4 in 2025-26, minus 1.1 in 2026-27 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 89% in 2024-25, 88% in 2025-26, 65% in 2026-27 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- 11 games in 2024-25 and 2025-26 and 2026-27 are neither after an international break nor between breaks, and sit out.