Baylor @ 
UCF
Baylor 41, UCF 9Baylor was favored by 2, and Baylor covered.
| a game | Baylor1 game | UCF1 game |
|---|---|---|
| Points | +17.8 | −14.1 |
| Points allowed | −21.8 | +16.8 |
| Total offense, yards | +133 | −113 |
| Total defense, yards | −96 | +119 |
| Touchdowns | +2.4 | −2.7 |
| Passer rating | +92.2 | −30.5 |
| Third downs | +3.8% | −25.6% |
| Sacks | +5.3 | +0.8 |
| Penalty yards | +28.1 | −15.2 |
| Turnovers forced | +0.8 | −1.2 |
| Turnovers lost | −1.3 | +0.6 |
Who put up numbers
UCF
- Passing yardsAlonza Barnett III133 passing yards
- Rushing yardsRocco Marriott50 rushing yards
- Receiving yardsJosh Derry70 receiving yards
Baylor
Analysis
UCF
- UCF had won 5 straight at home.streakthe runs →Ended here.
- UCF was 6.5 points a game over the closing line this season, 15th of 136.fact · rankedits form →−30.0 against the line this game.
Baylor
- Baylor’s pass attempts were 18.9 higher after a bye than on a normal week against expected over its last 25 games, 1st of 77 teams.fact · rankedthe split →This game: 14.4 under expected.
- Baylor was 4.6 points a game over the closing line this season, 30th of 136.fact · rankedits form →+30.0 against the line this game.
The series
- Baylor leads the series 3–1 since 2013. Baylor has won the last 3.seriesevery meeting →
If you squint
- UCF was 4–1 against the line as an underdog this season.countits form →Didn’t cover.
- At night, UCF’s passing yards were 170.9 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 16.9 under expected.
- Against an unranked opponent, UCF’s pass attempts were 9.8 under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 2.8 over expected.
- At home, UCF’s points were 11.6 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 17.8 under expected.
- Baylor was 2–2 against the line as a favorite this season.countits form →Covered.
- At night, Baylor’s pass attempts were 13.9 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 14.4 under expected.
- On the road, Baylor’s points were 11.5 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 15.4 over expected.
Every meeting
| Date | Where | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2026 | at UCF | Baylor 41, UCF 9 |
| Nov 1, 2025 | at Baylor | Baylor 30, UCF 3 |
| Sep 30, 2023 | at UCF | Baylor 36, UCF 35 |
| Jan 1, 2014 | neutral | UCF 52, Baylor 42 |
Method
- Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
- “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 29, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
- Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
- A game with no box score sits out.