UCF @ Kansas

Sat, Nov 7 · Memorial Stadium

The line has it Kansas 26, UCF 23.Kansas −2.5, total 48.5, as of Nov 3. A line moves until kickoff. The median of the books College Football Data lists, through Streak King.

UCF at Kansas: against expected, a game, this season, All games
a game	UCF8 games	Kansas8 games
	−0.1	+2.6
	−0.8	−0.9
	−40	+66
	−8	−24
	0.0	0.0
	−3.2	−9.6
	−6.1%	−4.6%
	+0.1	−0.6
	−8.2	+6.1
	+0.2	−0.2
	−0.1	+0.5

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game. Lit is among the ten biggest either way. Tap a row for the games.

Analysis

What’s true going in. Each line says how it stood up; you judge.

Kansas

Kansas is 1.4 points a game over the closing line this season, 58th of 136.fact · rankedits form →

UCF

UCF is 1.9 points a game over the closing line this season, 49th of 136.fact · rankedits form →

The series

Kansas leads the series 2–0 since 2023. Kansas has won the last 2.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

Kansas has lost 7 of its last 10.countits form →
Since Isaiah Marshall’s last game, Kansas’ passing yards are 119.6 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
Since Mason Ellis’ last game, Kansas’ carries are 11.3 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
At home, Kansas’ carries are 9.6 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →
UCF is 4–2 against the line as an underdog this season.countits form →
Without Keyone Jenkins, UCF’s carries are 11.8 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
Since Taevion Swint’s last game, UCF’s points allowed are 10.5 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
Without RJ Jackson Jr., UCF’s rushing yards are 42.2 under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →

Every meeting

Date	Where	Score
Oct 4, 2025	at UCF	Kansas 27, UCF 20
Oct 7, 2023	at Kansas	Kansas 51, UCF 22

Method

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
A game with no box score sits out.