Baylor’s pass attempts after a bye and on a normal week
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Baylor was 16.4 pass attempts over after a bye and 2.5 pass attempts under on a normal week over its last 25 games, 4 games against 16. The plain averages are 49.8 and 35.7, a difference of 14.0. Both opponents outside the major colleges were on a normal week.
Baylor’s +18.9 after a bye vs on a normal week over expected ranks 1st of the 78 teams with 4 games on each side over their last 25 games.
pass attempts a game over expected
A +18.9 difference in pass attempts over expected after a bye vs on a normal week is rare: shuffle which games were after a bye and it comes up less than once in 100.
A +14.0 difference in pass attempts after a bye vs on a normal week is rare: shuffle which games were after a bye and it comes up less than once in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | pass attempts | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2024 | vs TCU | W | 34 | 32.5 | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ West Virginia | W | 36 | 28.6 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Houston | W | 23 | 30.8 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Kansas | W | 31 | 32.7 | |
| Dec 31, 2024 | vs LSU (neutral) | L | 51 | 30.1 | |
| Aug 29, 2025 | vs Auburn | L | 48 | 38.5 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ SMU | W | 50 | 43.0 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Samford | W | 44 | — | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Arizona State | L | 39 | 41.3 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Oklahoma State | W | 35 | 37.5 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs Kansas State | W | 39 | 40.4 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @TCU | L | 52 | 39.3 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Cincinnati | L | 26 | 42.6 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs UCF | W | 40 | 38.5 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Utah | L | 58 | 34.7 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Arizona | L | 33 | 38.7 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsHouston | L | 46 | 36.9 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsAuburn (neutral) | L | 54 | 33.8 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Prairie View A&M | W | 42 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Louisiana Tech | W | 24 | 40.4 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Colorado | W | 39 | 33.6 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @Arizona State | W | 42 | 36.6 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vsTCU | L | 53 | 30.7 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @Kansas | L | 31 | 31.6 | |
| Oct 30, 2026 | @UCF | W | 25 | 39.4 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 0.4 in 2024, minus 0.3 in 2025, minus 0.1 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 73% in 2024, 73% in 2025, 60% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Samford, Prairie View A&M have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- 3 games in 2024 and 2025 and 2026 are neither after a bye nor on a normal week, and sit out.