Iowa State @ Baylor

Sat, Nov 7 · McLane Stadium

The line has it Baylor 30, Iowa State 20.Baylor −10, total 50.5, as of Nov 3. A line moves until kickoff. The median of the books College Football Data lists, through Streak King.

Iowa State at Baylor: against expected, a game, this season, All games
a game	Iowa State8 games	Baylor8 games
	+3.1	+2.8
	+1.1	−9.0
	+2	+51
	+18	−12
	+0.1	+0.4
	−4.3	+13.4
	−6.6%	−0.1%
	−1.3	+2.0
	−6.7	+18.0
	−0.2	+0.8
	−0.4	−0.1

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game. Lit is among the ten biggest either way. Tap a row for the games.

Analysis

What’s true going in. Each line says how it stood up; you judge.

Baylor

Baylor’s pass attempts are 18.9 higher after a bye than on a normal week against expected over its last 25 games, 1st of 78 teams.fact · rankedthe split →
Baylor is 7.8 points a game over the closing line this season, 9th of 136.fact · rankedits form →

Iowa State

Iowa State has beaten 6 straight unranked teams.streakthe runs →
Iowa State is 1.7 points a game over the closing line this season, 53rd of 136.fact · rankedits form →

The series

Baylor leads the series 12–11 since 1988. Iowa State has won the last 2.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

Baylor is 3–2 against the line as a favorite this season.countits form →
Without DJ Lagway, Baylor’s pass attempts are 16.4 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
At home, Baylor’s total yards are 61.1 under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →
Iowa State is 2–3 against the line as an underdog this season.countits form →
Without Jaylen Raynor, Iowa State’s rushing yards are 133.1 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
Against an unranked opponent, Iowa State’s rushing yards are 111.5 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →
On the road, Iowa State’s total yards are 126.4 under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →

Every meeting

Date	Where	Score
Oct 5, 2024	at Iowa State	Iowa State 43, Baylor 21
Oct 28, 2023	at Baylor	Iowa State 30, Baylor 18
Sep 24, 2022	at Iowa State	Baylor 31, Iowa State 24
Sep 25, 2021	at Baylor	Baylor 31, Iowa State 29
Nov 7, 2020	at Iowa State	Iowa State 38, Baylor 31
Sep 28, 2019	at Baylor	Baylor 23, Iowa State 21
Nov 10, 2018	at Iowa State	Iowa State 28, Baylor 14
Nov 18, 2017	at Baylor	Iowa State 23, Baylor 13
Oct 1, 2016	at Iowa State	Baylor 45, Iowa State 42
Oct 24, 2015	at Baylor	Baylor 45, Iowa State 27

Method

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
A game with no box score sits out.