UCF
4–4 · 2–3 Big 12 · Scott Frost, 4th season
Lost to Baylor 41–9, Oct 30 · Next: at Kansas, Sat, Nov 7 · analysis
Best by position: quarterbacks · running backs · wide receivers · tight ends · defenders · kickers · punters
Against the closing line
UCF has beaten the line in 2 of its last 4, 4.5 points a game under it. Over the season it’s 1.9 a game over, 49th of 136.
Of the 7 teams at 4–4 against a schedule this hard, UCF’s +1.9 is 2nd.
last 4
−4.5
before
+8.4
-20020
Oct 3, 2026 @ Houston +0.5
Oct 10, 2026 @ Oklahoma State −4.0
Oct 24, 2026 vs BYU +15.5
Oct 30, 2026 vs Baylor −30.0
Lately
- Won 7 of its last 10 at homecount
Sep 20, 2025 vs North Carolina +25
Oct 4, 2025 vs Kansas −7
Oct 18, 2025 vs West Virginia +32- Nov 7, 2025 vs Houston −3
- Nov 22, 2025 vs Oklahoma State +3
- B Sep 3 vs Bethune-Cookman +67
Sep 19 vs Georgia State +14
Sep 26 vs TCU +8- Oct 24 vs BYU +8
- Oct 30 vs Baylor −32
- Covered 5 of its last 10count
- Nov 22, 2025 vs Oklahoma State −10.5
- Nov 29, 2025 @ BYU −2.5
- B Sep 3 vs Bethune-Cookman +23.5
Sep 12 @ Pittsburgh +2- Sep 19 vs Georgia State −3.5
- Sep 26 vs TCU +11.5
- Oct 3 @ Houston +0.5
- Oct 10 @ Oklahoma State −4
- Oct 24 vs BYU +15.5
- Oct 30 vs Baylor −30
- Won 5 of its last 10count
- Nov 22, 2025 vs Oklahoma State +3
- Nov 29, 2025 @ BYU −20
- B Sep 3 vs Bethune-Cookman +67
- Sep 12 @ Pittsburgh −5
- Sep 19 vs Georgia State +14
- Sep 26 vs TCU +8
- Oct 3 @ Houston −10
- Oct 10 @ Oklahoma State −14
- Oct 24 vs BYU +8
- Oct 30 vs Baylor −32
Against expected,
| a game | offense | defense |
|---|---|---|
| Points | −0.1 · 65th | −0.8 · 62nd |
| Total yards | −40 · 99th | −8 · 61st |
| Touchdowns | 0.0 · 66th | −0.4 · 44th |
| Passing efficiency | −3.2 · 69th | −0.2 · 70th |
| 3rd downs | −6.1% · 109th | +1.9% · 86th |
| Turnovers | −0.1 · 48th | +0.2 · 33rd |
| Sacks | +0.2 · 86th | +0.1 · 64th |
| Penalty yards | −8.4 · 37th |
Over (+) or under (−) what its opponents usually allow, a game, and where that stands among 136 teams, the best first. Lit is the top ten or the bottom ten. Penalty yards read against the league’s mean, since nobody allows them.
Seasons
Method
- Against the line is each game’s points of margin less what the closing line expected, from College Football Streak King’s lines. A game nobody lined sits out, and a push hasn’t beaten it. Lately is the last 4 games with one.
- A schedule this hard means the mean rating of the opponents it’s played is within 5.2 points of the team’s, two thirds of a standard deviation of the league’s schedules, and a rating is what the season’s games say about a team’s margin against an average team. The teams beside it have its record.
- Against expected is each game against what the opponent usually gave up in its other games, with half the home edge, averaged. A game against a team with no other game here sits out.
- Passing efficiency is the NCAA’s passer rating. Turnovers on offense are the ones it lost, and on defense the ones it forced. Sacks on offense are the ones its quarterbacks took, and they start in 2024.