Buffalo @ 
Toledo
Buffalo 23, Toledo 8Toledo was favored by 18.5, and Buffalo covered.
| a game | Buffalo1 game | Toledo1 game |
|---|---|---|
| Points | −2.0 | −23.1 |
| Points allowed | −28.4 | +2.9 |
| Total offense, yards | +4 | −111 |
| Total defense, yards | −154 | +34 |
| Touchdowns | −0.9 | −2.6 |
| Passer rating | −40.7 | −34.1 |
| Third downs | +1.1% | −18.9% |
| Sacks | −0.3 | +1.7 |
| Penalty yards | −25.7 | +81.8 |
| Turnovers forced | +1.8 | −1.2 |
| Turnovers lost | −1.3 | +1.8 |
Who put up numbers
Toledo
- Passing yardsJohn Alan Richter203 passing yards
- Rushing yardsConnor Walendzak50 rushing yards
- Rushing touchdownsConnor Walendzak1 rushing touchdown
Buffalo
Analysis
Toledo
- Toledo’s points were 13.6 higher at home than away against expected over its last 25 games, 3rd of 136 teams.fact · rankedthe split →This game: 33.4 under expected.
- Toledo had won 9 straight at home.streakthe runs →Ended here.
- Toledo had beaten 4 straight unranked teams.streakthe runs →Ended here.
- Toledo had won 4 straight.streakthe runs →Ended here.
- Toledo was 5.9 points a game over the closing line this season, 31st of 136, and 11.9 better at home than away over its last 25, 9th of 136.fact · rankedits form →−33.5 against the line this game.
Buffalo
- Buffalo was 7.1 points a game under the closing line this season, 118th of 136.fact · rankedits form →+33.5 against the line this game.
The series
- The series is tied 6–6 since 1970. Buffalo has won the last 2.seriesevery meeting →
If you squint
- Toledo had won 7 of its last 10 by 10 or more.countits form →Now 7 of 11.
- Toledo had covered 7 of its last 10 at home.countits form →Now 7 of 11.
- Toledo was 2–2 against the line as a favorite this season.countits form →Didn’t cover.
- In a conference game, Toledo’s rushing yards were 213.4 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 107.0 under expected.
- At home, Toledo’s passing yards were 99.8 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 89.6 under expected.
- Buffalo had lost 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 7 of 11.
- Buffalo had failed to cover 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 7 of 11.
- In a conference game, Buffalo’s pass attempts were 17.3 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 3.4 under expected.
- On the road, Buffalo’s points allowed were 18.7 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 33.4 under expected.
- Against an unranked opponent, Buffalo’s third-down conversion rate were 7.2% under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 1.2% over expected.
Every meeting
| Date | Where | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | at Toledo | Buffalo 23, Toledo 8 |
| Oct 12, 2024 | at Buffalo | Buffalo 30, Toledo 15 |
| Oct 31, 2023 | at Toledo | Toledo 31, Buffalo 13 |
| Oct 22, 2022 | at Buffalo | Buffalo 34, Toledo 27 |
| Nov 20, 2019 | at Buffalo | Buffalo 49, Toledo 30 |
| Oct 20, 2018 | at Toledo | Buffalo 31, Toledo 17 |
| Nov 12, 2013 | at Toledo | Toledo 51, Buffalo 41 |
| Oct 27, 2012 | at Buffalo | Toledo 25, Buffalo 20 |
| Oct 13, 2007 | at Buffalo | Buffalo 43, Toledo 33 |
| Oct 22, 2005 | at Toledo | Toledo 38, Buffalo 15 |
Method
- Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
- “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 9, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
- Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
- A game with no box score sits out.