Buffalo
5–3 · 3–1 Mid-American · Pete Lembo, 3rd season
Beat Bowling Green 31–24, Oct 24 · Next: at Miami (OH), Tue, Nov 3 · analysis
Best by position: quarterbacks · running backs · wide receivers · tight ends · defenders · kickers · punters
Against the closing line
Buffalo has beaten the line in all of its last 4, by 12.1 points a game. Over the season it’s 0.3 a game over, 70th of 136.
Of the 10 teams at 5–3 against a schedule this hard, Buffalo’s +0.3 is 5th.
last 4
+12.1
before
−11.5
-20020
Oct 3, 2026 vs Western Michigan +10.5
Oct 10, 2026 @ Toledo +33.5
Oct 17, 2026 vs UMass +0.5
Oct 24, 2026 vs Bowling Green +4.0
Lately
- Covered 4 straightstreak
- Oct 3 vs Western Michigan +10.5
- Oct 10 @ Toledo +33.5
- Oct 17 vs UMass +0.5
- Oct 24 vs Bowling Green +4
the games, with the score and the spread
Buffalo has covered the spread in 4 straight games. Every game of it. Date Game Spread Result Score Oct 3, 2026 Buffalo vsWestern Michigan+13.5 L 17–20 Oct 10, 2026 Buffalo @Toledo+18.5 W 23–8 Oct 17, 2026 Buffalo vsUMass−6.5 W 25–18 Oct 24, 2026 Buffalo vsBowling Green−3 W 31–24 - Won 6 of its last 10 on the roadcount
Nov 2, 2024 @ Akron +11
Nov 20, 2024 @ Eastern Michigan +17
Aug 28, 2025 @ Minnesota −13
Sep 13, 2025 @ Kent State +3- Oct 18, 2025 @ UMass +7
- Nov 1, 2025 @ Bowling Green +25
Nov 12, 2025 @ Central Michigan −19
Sep 12 @ Florida International −13
Sep 19 @ Penn State −42- Oct 10 @ Toledo +15
- Won 5 of its last 10count
Nov 19, 2025 vs Miami (OH) −17
Nov 28, 2025 vs Ohio −5- U Sep 3 vs UAlbany +4
- Sep 12 @ Florida International −13
- Sep 19 @ Penn State −42
- R Sep 26 vs Robert Morris +3
- Oct 3 vs Western Michigan −3
- Oct 10 @ Toledo +15
- Oct 17 vs UMass +7
- Oct 24 vs Bowling Green +7
Against expected,
| a game | offense | defense |
|---|---|---|
| Points | −3.6 · 88th | +2.0 · 88th |
| Total yards | −50 · 111th | +52 · 113th |
| Touchdowns | −0.8 · 105th | +0.4 · 89th |
| Passing efficiency | −26.5 · 129th | +10.3 · 97th |
| 3rd downs | −4.8% · 102nd | −1.8% · 50th |
| Turnovers | +0.1 · 79th | +0.1 · 46th |
| Sacks | +0.6 · 107th | −0.3 · 93rd |
| Penalty yards | −9.1 · 34th |
Over (+) or under (−) what its opponents usually allow, a game, and where that stands among 136 teams, the best first. Lit is the top ten or the bottom ten. Penalty yards read against the league’s mean, since nobody allows them.
Seasons
- 2026 5–3
- 2025 5–7
- 2024 9–4
- 2023 3–9
- 2022 7–6
- 2021 4–8
- 2020 6–1
- 2019 8–5
- 2018 10–4
- 2017 6–6
- 2016 2–10
- 2015 5–7
- 2014 5–6
- 2013 8–5
- 2012 4–8
- 2011 3–9
- 2010 2–10
- 2009 5–7
- 2008 8–6
- 2007 5–7
- 2006 2–10
- 2005 1–10
- 2004 2–9
- 2003 1–11
- 2002 1–11
- 2001 3–8
- 2000 2–9
- 1999 0–11
- 1970 2–9
- 1969 6–3
- 1968 7–3
- 1967 6–4
- 1966 5–5
- 1965 5–3–2
- 1964 4–4–1
- 1963 5–3–1
- 1962 6–3
Method
- Against the line is each game’s points of margin less what the closing line expected, from College Football Streak King’s lines. A game nobody lined sits out, and a push hasn’t beaten it. Lately is the last 4 games with one.
- A schedule this hard means the mean rating of the opponents it’s played is within 5.2 points of the team’s, two thirds of a standard deviation of the league’s schedules, and a rating is what the season’s games say about a team’s margin against an average team. The teams beside it have its record.
- Against expected is each game against what the opponent usually gave up in its other games, with half the home edge, averaged. A game against a team with no other game here sits out.
- Passing efficiency is the NCAA’s passer rating. Turnovers on offense are the ones it lost, and on defense the ones it forced. Sacks on offense are the ones its quarterbacks took, and they start in 2024.