UMass @ Toledo

Wed, Nov 11 · Glass Bowl

No line yet.

UMass at Toledo: against expected, a game, this season, All games
a game	UMass8 games	Toledo8 games
	−7.5	+5.4
	+2.6	+5.7
	−71	+69
	0	+23
	−1.1	+0.7
	−2.4	+16.5
	−7.1%	−1.2%
	+0.4	+1.0
	+8.9	+22.9
	0.0	+0.2
	−0.2	0.0

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game. Lit is among the ten biggest either way. Tap a row for the games.

Analysis

What’s true going in. Each line says how it stood up; you judge.

Toledo

Toledo is 1.6 points a game over the closing line this season, 56th of 136.fact · rankedits form →

UMass

UMass has lost 4 straight.streakthe runs →
UMass is 3.9 points a game over the closing line this season, 29th of 136, and 8.1 better away than at home over its last 25, 9th of 136.fact · rankedits form →

The series

Toledo leads the series 8–1 since 1976. Toledo has won the last 8.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

Toledo has won 9 of its last 10 at home.countits form →
Toledo has won 7 of its last 10.countits form →
Toledo has covered 7 of its last 10 at home.countits form →
Since Connor Walendzak’s last game, Toledo’s total yards are 210.0 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
Without William Watson III, UMass’ carries are 7.3 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
Since T.Y. Harding’s last game, UMass’ third-down conversion rate are 12.9% under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
On the road, UMass’ third-down conversion rate are 8.7% under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →

Every meeting

Date	Where	Score
Sep 7, 2024	at Toledo	Toledo 38, UMass 23
Oct 7, 2023	at UMass	Toledo 41, UMass 24
Sep 10, 2022	at Toledo	Toledo 55, UMass 10
Oct 2, 2021	at UMass	Toledo 45, UMass 7
Oct 24, 2015	at UMass	Toledo 51, UMass 35
Oct 25, 2014	at Toledo	Toledo 42, UMass 35
Sep 25, 1999	at Toledo	Toledo 24, UMass 3
Sep 10, 1983	at Toledo	Toledo 45, UMass 13
Sep 11, 1976	at UMass	UMass 28, Toledo 14

Method

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
A game with no box score sits out.