Toledo’s points at home and away
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Toledo was 5.1 points over at home and 6.4 points under away over its last 25 games, 11 games against 10. The plain averages are 40.4 and 21.1, a difference of 19.3. Both opponents outside the major colleges were at home.
Toledo’s +11.5 at home vs away over expected ranks 5th of the 136 teams with 4 games on each side over their last 25 games.
points a game over expected
at home
+5.1
away
−6.4
-20020
A +11.5 difference in points over expected at home vs away is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 5 times in 100.
plain
40.4
21.1
204060
A +19.3 difference in points at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up less than once in 100.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12, 2024 | vs Central Michigan | W | 37 | 32.1 | |
| Nov 20, 2024 | vs Ohio | L | 7 | 24.5 | |
| Nov 26, 2024 | @ Akron | L | 14 | 31.2 | |
| Dec 26, 2024 | vs Pittsburgh (neutral) | W | 48 | 21.1 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | @ Kentucky | L | 16 | 22.8 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Western Kentucky | W | 45 | 28.4 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vsMMorgan State | W | 60 | — | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Western Michigan | L | 13 | 21.9 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vsAkron | W | 45 | 35.0 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Bowling Green | L | 23 | 29.9 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Kent State | W | 45 | 37.9 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Washington State | L | 7 | 20.9 | |
| Nov 5, 2025 | vs Northern Illinois | W | 42 | 28.6 | |
| Nov 12, 2025 | @ Miami (OH) | W | 24 | 27.3 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Ball State | W | 38 | 33.0 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @Central Michigan | W | 21 | 28.3 | |
| Dec 23, 2025 | vs Louisville (neutral) | L | 22 | 20.9 | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | @ Michigan State | L | 20 | 24.0 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsCCentral Connecticut | W | 63 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Temple | W | 49 | 28.9 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs San Diego State | W | 41 | 32.4 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @Ball State | W | 39 | 35.8 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Buffalo | L | 8 | 41.4 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Eastern Michigan | W | 34 | 32.8 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsWestern Michigan | W | 45 | 23.6 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.5 in 2024, plus 1.5 in 2025, plus 1.9 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 75% in 2024, 78% in 2025, 66% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Morgan State, Central Connecticut have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.