Buffalo @ Ball State

Wed, Nov 11 · Scheumann Stadium

No line yet.

Buffalo at Ball State: against expected, a game, this season, All games
a game	Buffalo8 games	Ball State8 games
	−3.6	−7.0
	+2.0	+14.7
	−50	−53
	+52	+84
	−0.8	−0.5
	−26.5	−18.5
	−4.8%	−8.1%
	−0.3	−0.5
	−26.2	+10.0
	+0.1	−0.7
	+0.1	−0.3

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game. Lit is among the ten biggest either way. Tap a row for the games.

Analysis

What’s true going in. Each line says how it stood up; you judge.

Ball State

Ball State has covered 4 straight.streakthe runs →
Ball State is 0.6 points a game under the closing line this season, 78th of 136.fact · rankedits form →

Buffalo

Buffalo has covered 4 straight.streakthe runs →
Buffalo is 0.3 points a game over the closing line this season, 70th of 136, and 8.5 better away than at home over its last 25, 8th of 136.fact · rankedits form →

The series

Ball State leads the series 11–3 since 1969.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

Ball State has covered 8 of its last 10 at home.countits form →
Ball State has lost 7 of its last 10.countits form →
Without Keldric Luster, Ball State’s total yards are 180.9 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
Without Jalen Bonds, Ball State’s pass attempts are 7.8 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
At home, Ball State’s carries are 10.4 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →
Without Nino Hill, Buffalo’s pass attempts are 17.0 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
Without James McNeil Jr., Buffalo’s points allowed are 19.4 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
On the road, Buffalo’s third-down conversion rate are 12.2% under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →

Every meeting

Date	Where	Score
Nov 12, 2024	at Buffalo	Buffalo 51, Ball State 48
Nov 23, 2021	at Ball State	Ball State 20, Buffalo 3
Dec 18, 2020	neutral	Ball State 38, Buffalo 28
Nov 16, 2017	at Ball State	Buffalo 40, Ball State 24
Oct 15, 2016	at Buffalo	Ball State 31, Buffalo 21
Sep 17, 2011	at Ball State	Ball State 28, Buffalo 25
Nov 12, 2010	at Buffalo	Ball State 20, Buffalo 3
Dec 5, 2008	neutral	Buffalo 42, Ball State 24
Sep 29, 2007	at Ball State	Ball State 49, Buffalo 14
Oct 7, 2006	at Buffalo	Ball State 55, Buffalo 25

Method

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
A game with no box score sits out.