Toledo @ Ball State

Sat, Oct 3, 2026

Toledo 39, Ball State 24Toledo was favored by 21, and Ball State covered.

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Ball State was 6.0 points a game under the closing line this season, 109th of 136, and 12.1 better at home than away over its last 25, 8th of 136.fact · rankedits form →+6.0 against the line this game.

Toledo’s points were 15.2 higher at home than away against expected over its last 25 games, 2nd of 136 teams.fact · rankedthe split →This game: 3.2 over expected.
Toledo had won 9 straight at home.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.
Toledo was 8.9 points a game over the closing line this season, 19th of 136, and 13.6 worse away than at home over its last 25, 133rd of 136.fact · rankedits form →−6.0 against the line this game.

Toledo leads the series 29–21–1 since 1975. Toledo has won the last 5.seriesevery meeting →

Ball State had covered 8 of its last 10 at home.countits form →Now 9 of 11.
Ball State had lost 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
In a conference game, Ball State’s rushing yards were 96.8 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 0.2 over expected.
Against an unranked opponent, Ball State’s pass attempts were 7.5 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 1.0 under expected.
Toledo had won 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
On the road, Toledo’s carries were 18.7 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 17.8 over expected.

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
“This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 2, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
A game with no box score sits out.