Ball State @ UMass

Thu, Nov 5 · Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium

The line has it UMass 26, Ball State 23.UMass −3, total 49.5, as of Nov 3. A line moves until kickoff. The median of the books College Football Data lists, through Streak King.

Ball State at UMass: against expected, a game, this season, All games
a game	Ball State8 games	UMass8 games
	−7.0	−7.5
	+14.7	+2.6
	−53	−71
	+84	0
	−0.5	−1.1
	−18.5	−2.4
	−8.1%	−7.1%
	−0.5	+0.4
	+10.0	+8.9
	−0.7	0.0
	−0.3	−0.2

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game. Lit is among the ten biggest either way. Tap a row for the games.

Analysis

What’s true going in. Each line says how it stood up; you judge.

UMass

UMass has lost 4 straight.streakthe runs →
UMass is 3.9 points a game over the closing line this season, 29th of 136, and 8.1 worse at home than away over its last 25, 128th of 136.fact · rankedits form →

Ball State

Ball State has covered 4 straight.streakthe runs →
Ball State is 0.6 points a game under the closing line this season, 78th of 136.fact · rankedits form →

The series

The series is tied 2–2 since 1984.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

UMass is 2–2 against the line as a favorite this season.countits form →
Without William Watson III, UMass’ carries are 7.3 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
Since T.Y. Harding’s last game, UMass’ third-down conversion rate are 12.9% under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
At home, UMass’ points of margin are 18.5 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →
Ball State has lost 7 of its last 10.countits form →
Ball State is 3–3 against the line as an underdog this season.countits form →
Without Keldric Luster, Ball State’s total yards are 180.9 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
Without Jalen Bonds, Ball State’s pass attempts are 7.8 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
In a conference game, Ball State’s pass attempts are 3.2 under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →

Every meeting

Date	Where	Score
Oct 31, 2015	at Ball State	Ball State 20, UMass 10
Nov 12, 2014	at UMass	UMass 24, Ball State 10
Sep 17, 1988	at Ball State	Ball State 44, UMass 17
Sep 1, 1984	at UMass	UMass 26, Ball State 10

Method

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
A game with no box score sits out.