Putting Up Numbers· Soccer

Toulouse @ Marseille

Sun, Nov 1, 2026

Marseille 2, Toulouse 0

Toulouse at Marseille: against expected, a game, this season, This game
a gameToulouse1 gameMarseille1 game
Goals−1.53+0.41
Goals conceded−0.13−1.40
Expected goals+0.32−0.56
Expected goals conceded−0.43+0.43
Shots−0.9−1.5
Shots conceded−1.0+1.7
Points−1.32+1.56

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

Marseille

Analysis

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

The series

  • Marseille leads the series 21–5–17 since 2003-04. Marseille has won the last 2.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

  • At home, Marseille’s expected goals conceded were 0.57 over expected in 4 games. 4 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 0.22 over expected.
  • On the road, Toulouse’s goals were 1.04 over expected in 4 games. 4 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 1.52 under expected.
  • Against a top-half team, Toulouse’s goals were 0.99 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 1.52 under expected.

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Nov 1, 2026at MarseilleMarseille 2, Toulouse 0
Mar 7, 2026at ToulouseMarseille 1, Toulouse 0
Nov 29, 2025at MarseilleMarseille 2, Toulouse 2
Apr 6, 2025at MarseilleMarseille 3, Toulouse 2
Aug 31, 2024at ToulouseMarseille 3, Toulouse 1
Apr 21, 2024at ToulouseMarseille 2, Toulouse 2
Sep 17, 2023at MarseilleMarseille 0, Toulouse 0
Feb 19, 2023at ToulouseMarseille 3, Toulouse 2
Dec 29, 2022at MarseilleMarseille 6, Toulouse 1
Feb 8, 2020at MarseilleMarseille 1, Toulouse 0

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 31, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
  • A game with no box score sits out.

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