Strasbourg @ Toulouse

Fri, Nov 6 · Ligue 1 · Stadium Municipal de Toulouse

The odds have it Toulouse 1.77, Strasbourg 1.34.Expected goals from DraftKings’ closing odds on ESPN’s match pages, as of Nov 4. Odds move until kickoff.

Strasbourg at Toulouse: against expected, a game, this season, All games
a game	Strasbourg9 games	Toulouse9 games
	+0.32	−0.20
	+0.44	0.00
	−0.16	+0.16
	+0.08	+0.11
	−0.5	−0.7
	+1.0	+0.5
	−0.21	−0.33

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game. Lit is among the ten biggest either way. Tap a row for the games.

Analysis

What’s true going in. Each line says how it stood up; you judge.

The series

Strasbourg leads the series 10–6–6 since 2003-04. Toulouse has won the last 2.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

At home, Toulouse’s goals are 0.97 under expected in 4 games. 4 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →
On the road, Strasbourg’s goals conceded are 0.78 over expected in 5 games. A +1.09 difference in goals conceded over expected away vs at home is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were away and it comes up 9 times in 100.thinthe split →

Every meeting

Date	Where	Score
May 3, 2026	at Strasbourg	Toulouse 2, Strasbourg 1
Dec 6, 2025	at Toulouse	Toulouse 1, Strasbourg 0
Mar 16, 2025	at Strasbourg	Strasbourg 2, Toulouse 1
Jan 12, 2025	at Toulouse	Strasbourg 2, Toulouse 1
Apr 7, 2024	at Toulouse	Toulouse 0, Strasbourg 0
Aug 27, 2023	at Strasbourg	Strasbourg 2, Toulouse 0
Jan 29, 2023	at Strasbourg	Toulouse 2, Strasbourg 1
Oct 23, 2022	at Toulouse	Toulouse 2, Strasbourg 2
Feb 5, 2020	at Toulouse	Strasbourg 1, Toulouse 0
Dec 7, 2019	at Strasbourg	Strasbourg 4, Toulouse 2

Method

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
A game with no box score sits out.