Toulouse
2–4–3 · Lost to Marseille 2–0, Nov 1
Next: vs Strasbourg, Fri, Nov 6 · analysis
Against the closing odds
Toulouse has beaten the odds in 2 of its last 4, by 0.31 goals a game. Over the season it’s 0.13 a game under, 66th of 110.
last 4
+0.31
before
−0.48
-202
Oct 10, 2026 @ AS Monaco +1.00
Oct 16, 2026 @ Le Mans +2.71
Oct 25, 2026 vs Troyes −1.04
Nov 1, 2026 @ Marseille −1.43
Lately
- Lost 3 of its last 10count
May 17, 2026 @ Nantes 0
Aug 22 vs Lyon −2
Aug 29 @ Brest 0
Sep 3 vs Lille −1
Sep 12 @ Lorient 0
Sep 19 vs Le Havre AC +1- Oct 10 @ AS Monaco 0
- Oct 16 @ Le Mans +3
- Oct 25 vs Troyes 0
- Nov 1 @ Marseille −2
- Won 3 of its last 10 at homecount
Feb 21, 2026 vs Paris FC 0- Mar 7, 2026 vs Marseille −1
- Mar 21, 2026 vs Lorient +1
- Apr 12, 2026 vs Lille −4
- Apr 25, 2026 vs AS Monaco 0
- May 10, 2026 vs Lyon +1
- Aug 22 vs Lyon −2
- Sep 3 vs Lille −1
- Sep 19 vs Le Havre AC +1
- Oct 25 vs Troyes 0
- Won 3 of its last 10 on the roadcount
Mar 15, 2026 @ Metz +1
Apr 3, 2026 @ Paris Saint-Germain −2
Apr 17, 2026 @ Lens −1
May 3, 2026 @ Strasbourg +1- May 17, 2026 @ Nantes 0
- Aug 29 @ Brest 0
- Sep 12 @ Lorient 0
- Oct 10 @ AS Monaco 0
- Oct 16 @ Le Mans +3
- Nov 1 @ Marseille −2
Against expected,
| a game | attack | defense |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | −0.20 · 53rd | 0.00 · 52nd |
| Expected goals | +0.16 · 26th | +0.11 · 66th |
| Shots | −0.7 · 55th | +0.5 · 52nd |
| Points | −0.33 · 64th |
Over (+) or under (−) what its opponents usually allow, a game, and where that stands among 96 clubs, the best first. Lit is the top ten or the bottom ten.
Method
- Against the odds is each game’s goal difference less what the closing odds expected, from DraftKings’ closing odds on ESPN’s match pages. A game nobody lined sits out, and a push hasn’t beaten it. Lately is the last 4 games with one.
- Against expected is each game against what the opponent usually gave up in its other games, with half the home edge, averaged. A game against a team with no other game here sits out.