Real Sociedad @ Athletic Club

Sun, Nov 1, 2026

Athletic Club 2, Real Sociedad 1

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Against a top-half team, Athletic Club’s shots were 10.7 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 4.5 under expected.
At home, Athletic Club’s expected goals conceded were 0.73 under expected in 5 games. A −1.17 difference in expected goals conceded over expected at home vs away is unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 5 times in 100.thinthe split →This game: 0.51 over expected.
Against a top-half team, Real Sociedad’s shots conceded were 9.2 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 4.5 under expected.
On the road, Real Sociedad’s shots conceded were 3.9 over expected in 5 games. A +6.0 difference in shots conceded over expected away vs at home is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were away and it comes up 14 times in 100.thinthe split →This game: 4.5 under expected.

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
“This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 31, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
A game with no box score sits out.