Fulham @ Aston Villa

Sat, Oct 31, 2026

Aston Villa 1, Fulham 1

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Aston Villa’s goals were 0.92 higher vs a top-half team than vs a bottom-half team against expected over its last 75 games, 1st of 119 teams.fact · rankedthe split →This game: 0.69 under expected.
Aston Villa had won 4 straight.streakthe runs →Ended here.

Against a bottom-half team, Aston Villa’s goals conceded were 1.82 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 0.03 under expected.
Against a top-half team, Fulham’s points were 1.98 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 0.13 over expected.
On the road, Fulham’s expected goals were 0.47 under expected in 4 games. 4 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 1.15 over expected.

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
“This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 30, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
A game with no box score sits out.