Aston Villa
6–3–3 · Drew with Fulham 1–1, Oct 31
Next: at Manchester United, Sun, Nov 8 · analysis
Against the closing odds
Aston Villa has beaten the odds in 2 of its last 4, by 0.69 goals a game. Over the season it’s 0.44 a game over, 21st of 110.
last 4
+0.69
before
+0.31
0
Oct 17, 2026 @ Newcastle United +1.35
Oct 21, 2026 vs Viking FK −0.11
Oct 24, 2026 vs Manchester City +2.03
Oct 31, 2026 vs Fulham −0.52
Lately
- Won 6 of its last 10count
Sep 5 @ Hull City 0
Sep 8 @ Club Brugge +1
Sep 12 vs Nottingham Forest −1
Sep 19 @ Tottenham Hotspur +1
Oct 10 vs Brentford 0
Oct 14 vs Fenerbahce +6- Oct 17 @ Newcastle United +1
- Oct 21 vs Viking FK +2
- Oct 24 vs Manchester City +1
- Oct 31 vs Fulham 0
- Won 5 of its last 10 at homecount
Apr 19, 2026 vs Sunderland +1- May 3, 2026 vs Tottenham Hotspur −1
May 15, 2026 vs Liverpool +2
Aug 31 vs Arsenal −1- Sep 12 vs Nottingham Forest −1
- Oct 10 vs Brentford 0
- Oct 14 vs Fenerbahce +6
- Oct 21 vs Viking FK +2
- Oct 24 vs Manchester City +1
- Oct 31 vs Fulham 0
- Won 4 of its last 10 on the roadcount
Mar 15, 2026 @ Manchester United −2- Apr 12, 2026 @ Nottingham Forest 0
- Apr 25, 2026 @ Fulham −1
May 10, 2026 @ Burnley 0- May 24, 2026 @ Manchester City +1
Aug 23 @ Brighton & Hove Albion −4- Sep 5 @ Hull City 0
- Sep 8 @ Club Brugge +1
- Sep 19 @ Tottenham Hotspur +1
- Oct 17 @ Newcastle United +1
Against expected,
| a game | attack | defense |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | +0.31 · 26th | −0.34 · 28th |
| Expected goals | −0.08 · 52nd | +0.09 · 63rd |
| Shots | −0.4 · 49th | +1.1 · 63rd |
| Points | +0.48 · 22nd |
Over (+) or under (−) what its opponents usually allow, a game, and where that stands among 96 clubs, the best first. Lit is the top ten or the bottom ten.
Aston Villa’s splits
Method
- Against the odds is each game’s goal difference less what the closing odds expected, from DraftKings’ closing odds on ESPN’s match pages. A game nobody lined sits out, and a push hasn’t beaten it. Lately is the last 4 games with one.
- Against expected is each game against what the opponent usually gave up in its other games, with half the home edge, averaged. A game against a team with no other game here sits out.