Putting Up Numbers· Soccer

Borussia Dortmund @ Bayern Munich

Sat, Oct 31, 2026

Bayern Munich 2, Borussia Dortmund 2

Borussia Dortmund at Bayern Munich: against expected, a game, this season, This game
a gameBorussia Dortmund1 gameBayern Munich1 game
Goals+0.64+0.59
Goals conceded−0.91+0.48
Expected goals−0.12+1.74
Expected goals conceded+0.41−0.65
Shots+1.8+9.8
Shots conceded+2.1−2.5
Points+0.20−0.08

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

Bayern Munich

Borussia Dortmund

Analysis

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Bayern Munich

  • Bayern Munich’s points were 1.01 higher vs a top-half team than vs a bottom-half team against expected over its last 75 games, 1st of 119 teams.fact · rankedthe split →This game: 0.57 under expected.
  • Bayern Munich’s points were 0.76 lower after a Champions League game than in other league games against expected over its last 75 games, 28th of 29 teams.fact · rankedthe split →This game: 0.57 under expected.

The series

If you squint

  • Bayern Munich had won 7 of its last 10 at home.countits form →Now 7 of 11.
  • At home, Bayern Munich’s goals were 2.69 over expected in 5 games. A +3.15 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 6 times in 100.thinthe split →This game: 0.32 under expected.
  • Borussia Dortmund had won 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 7 of 11.

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Oct 31, 2026at Bayern MunichBayern Munich 2, Borussia Dortmund 2
Feb 28, 2026at Borussia DortmundBayern Munich 3, Borussia Dortmund 2
Oct 18, 2025at Bayern MunichBayern Munich 2, Borussia Dortmund 1
Apr 12, 2025at Bayern MunichBayern Munich 2, Borussia Dortmund 2
Nov 30, 2024at Borussia DortmundBayern Munich 1, Borussia Dortmund 1
Mar 30, 2024at Bayern MunichBorussia Dortmund 2, Bayern Munich 0
Nov 4, 2023at Borussia DortmundBayern Munich 4, Borussia Dortmund 0
Apr 1, 2023at Bayern MunichBayern Munich 4, Borussia Dortmund 2
Oct 8, 2022at Borussia DortmundBayern Munich 2, Borussia Dortmund 2
Apr 23, 2022at Bayern MunichBayern Munich 3, Borussia Dortmund 1

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 30, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
  • A game with no box score sits out.

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