Putting Up Numbers· Soccer

Bayern Munich @ Mainz

Sat, Nov 7 · Bundesliga · MEWA ARENA

The odds have it Mainz 1.30, Bayern Munich 2.91.Expected goals from DraftKings’ closing odds on ESPN’s match pages, as of Nov 4. Odds move until kickoff.

Bayern Munich at Mainz: against expected, a game, this season, All games
a gameBayern Munich11 gamesMainz8 games
+1.79+0.44
−0.49+0.69
+1.40+0.30
−0.60−0.21
+8.3+1.3
−4.9−0.5
+0.73−0.23

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game. Lit is among the ten biggest either way. Tap a row for the games.

Analysis

What’s true going in. Each line says how it stood up; you judge.

The series

If you squint

  • At home, Mainz’s shots are 4.8 over expected in 4 games. 4 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →
  • On the road, Bayern Munich’s goal difference are 0.81 under expected in 5 games. A −3.02 difference in goal difference over expected away vs at home is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were away and it comes up 6 times in 100.thinthe split →

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Apr 25, 2026at MainzBayern Munich 4, Mainz 3
Dec 14, 2025at Bayern MunichMainz 2, Bayern Munich 2
Apr 26, 2025at Bayern MunichBayern Munich 3, Mainz 0
Dec 14, 2024at MainzMainz 2, Bayern Munich 1
Mar 9, 2024at Bayern MunichBayern Munich 8, Mainz 1
Oct 21, 2023at MainzBayern Munich 3, Mainz 1
Apr 22, 2023at MainzMainz 3, Bayern Munich 1
Oct 29, 2022at Bayern MunichBayern Munich 6, Mainz 2
Apr 30, 2022at MainzMainz 3, Bayern Munich 1
Dec 11, 2021at Bayern MunichBayern Munich 2, Mainz 1

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • A game with no box score sits out.

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