Putting Up Numbers· Soccer

Real Betis @ Borussia Dortmund

Wed, Nov 4 · Champions League · Signal Iduna Park

The odds have it Borussia Dortmund 2.17, Real Betis 1.23.Expected goals from DraftKings’ closing odds on ESPN’s match pages, as of Nov 4. Odds move until kickoff.

Real Betis at Borussia Dortmund: against expected, a game, this season, All games
a gameReal Betis14 gamesBorussia Dortmund11 games
+0.17−0.01
−0.14−0.74
+0.13+0.11
+0.17−0.44
+3.3+0.3
+0.9−2.1
+0.84+0.77

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game. Lit is among the ten biggest either way. Tap a row for the games.

Analysis

What’s true going in. Each line says how it stood up; you judge.

If you squint

  • Borussia Dortmund has won 8 of its last 10 at home.countits form →
  • In the Champions League, Borussia Dortmund’s expected goals are 0.50 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →
  • Real Betis has won 7 of its last 10.countits form →
  • In the Champions League, Real Betis’ shots conceded are 3.4 under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →
  • On the road, Real Betis’ yellow cards are 0.7 under expected in 6 games. A −1.3 difference in yellow cards over expected away vs at home is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were away and it comes up 11 times in 100.thinthe split →

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • A game with no box score sits out.

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