Bayern Munich’s points after a Champions League game and in other league games
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Bayern Munich was 0.27 points under after a Champions League game and 0.46 points over in other league games over its last 75 games, 22 games against 32. The plain averages are 2.09 and 2.75, a difference of 0.66.
Bayern Munich’s −0.73 after a Champions League game vs in other league games over expected ranks 27th of the 28 teams with 5 games on each side over their last 75 games.
points a game over expected
after a Champions League game
−0.27
in other league games
+0.46
-20
A −0.73 difference in points over expected after a Champions League game vs in other league games is unusual: shuffle which games were after a Champions League game and it comes up 2 times in 100.
plain
2.09
2.75
0123
A −0.66 difference in points after a Champions League game vs in other league games is unusual: shuffle which games were after a Champions League game and it comes up 3 times in 100.
The games
after a Champions League gamein other league games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 23, 2025 | vs Eintracht Frankfurt | W | 3 | 1.95 | |
| Feb 28, 2025 | @ VfB Stuttgart | W | 3 | 2.00 | |
| Mar 5, 2025 | vs Bayer Leverkusen | W | 3 | 1.69 | |
| Mar 8, 2025 | vs VfL Bochum | L | 0 | 2.98 | |
| Mar 11, 2025 | @Bayer Leverkusen | W | 3 | 1.44 | |
| Mar 15, 2025 | @ 1. FC Union Berlin | T | 1 | 2.24 | |
| Mar 29, 2025 | vs St. Pauli | W | 3 | 2.65 | |
| Apr 4, 2025 | @ FC Augsburg | W | 3 | 2.08 | |
| Apr 8, 2025 | vs Internazionale | L | 0 | 1.56 | |
| Apr 12, 2025 | vs Borussia Dortmund | T | 1 | 2.02 | |
| Apr 16, 2025 | @Internazionale | T | 1 | 1.27 | |
| Apr 19, 2025 | @ 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 | W | 3 | 2.55 | |
| Apr 26, 2025 | vs Mainz | W | 3 | 2.12 | |
| May 3, 2025 | @ RB Leipzig | T | 1 | 2.06 | |
| May 10, 2025 | vs Borussia Mönchengladbach | W | 3 | 2.39 | |
| May 17, 2025 | @ TSG Hoffenheim | W | 3 | 2.32 | |
| Aug 22, 2025 | vsRB Leipzig | W | 3 | 2.23 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | @FC Augsburg | W | 3 | 2.35 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Hamburg SV | W | 3 | 2.71 | |
| Sep 17, 2025 | vs Chelsea | W | 3 | 2.10 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @TSG Hoffenheim | W | 3 | 1.93 | |
| Sep 26, 2025 | vs Werder Bremen | W | 3 | 2.92 | |
| Sep 30, 2025 | @ Pafos | W | 3 | 2.11 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @Eintracht Frankfurt | W | 3 | 2.32 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vsBorussia Dortmund | W | 3 | 2.08 | |
| Oct 22, 2025 | vs Club Brugge | W | 3 | 2.35 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @Borussia Mönchengladbach | W | 3 | 2.36 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vsBayer Leverkusen | W | 3 | 2.22 | |
| Nov 4, 2025 | @ Paris Saint-Germain | W | 3 | 1.31 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @1. FC Union Berlin | T | 1 | 2.47 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs SC Freiburg | W | 3 | 2.58 | |
| Nov 26, 2025 | @ Arsenal | L | 0 | 1.18 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsSt. Pauli | W | 3 | 3.06 | |
| Dec 6, 2025 | @VfB Stuttgart | W | 3 | 1.88 | |
| Dec 9, 2025 | vs Sporting CP | W | 3 | 1.88 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | vsMainz | T | 1 | 2.77 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | @1. FC Heidenheim 1846 | W | 3 | 2.72 | |
| Jan 11, 2026 | vs VfL Wolfsburg | W | 3 | 2.99 | |
| Jan 14, 2026 | @ FC Cologne | W | 3 | 2.50 | |
| Jan 17, 2026 | @RB Leipzig | W | 3 | 1.89 | |
| Jan 21, 2026 | vs Union St.-Gilloise | W | 3 | 2.57 | |
| Jan 24, 2026 | vsFC Augsburg | L | 0 | 2.82 | |
| Jan 28, 2026 | @ PSV Eindhoven | W | 3 | 2.06 | |
| Jan 31, 2026 | @Hamburg SV | T | 1 | 2.45 | |
| Feb 8, 2026 | vsTSG Hoffenheim | W | 3 | 2.28 | |
| Feb 14, 2026 | @Werder Bremen | W | 3 | 2.58 | |
| Feb 21, 2026 | vsEintracht Frankfurt | W | 3 | 2.67 | |
| Feb 28, 2026 | @Borussia Dortmund | W | 3 | 1.73 | |
| Mar 6, 2026 | vsBorussia Mönchengladbach | W | 3 | 2.71 | |
| Mar 10, 2026 | @ Atalanta | W | 3 | 2.13 | |
| Mar 14, 2026 | @Bayer Leverkusen | T | 1 | 1.95 | |
| Mar 18, 2026 | vsAtalanta | W | 3 | 2.47 | |
| Mar 21, 2026 | vs1. FC Union Berlin | W | 3 | 2.74 | |
| Apr 4, 2026 | @SC Freiburg | W | 3 | 2.23 | |
| Apr 7, 2026 | @ Real Madrid | W | 3 | 1.68 | |
| Apr 11, 2026 | @St. Pauli | W | 3 | 2.72 | |
| Apr 15, 2026 | vsReal Madrid | W | 3 | 2.02 | |
| Apr 19, 2026 | vsVfB Stuttgart | W | 3 | 2.23 | |
| Apr 25, 2026 | @Mainz | W | 3 | 2.34 | |
| Apr 28, 2026 | @Paris Saint-Germain | L | 0 | 1.41 | |
| May 2, 2026 | vs1. FC Heidenheim 1846 | T | 1 | 3.15 | |
| May 6, 2026 | vsParis Saint-Germain | T | 1 | 1.72 | |
| May 9, 2026 | @VfL Wolfsburg | W | 3 | 2.65 | |
| May 16, 2026 | vsFC Cologne | W | 3 | 2.85 | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | vsVfB Stuttgart | W | 3 | 1.88 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Schalke 04 | T | 1 | 1.97 | |
| Sep 10, 2026 | vs Bodo/Glimt | W | 3 | 1.78 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ SV Elversberg | W | 3 | 1.51 | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | vs1. FC Union Berlin | W | 3 | 1.91 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @FC Augsburg | T | 1 | 1.76 | |
| Oct 13, 2026 | @ Viking FK | T | 1 | 2.19 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vsRB Leipzig | W | 3 | 1.72 | |
| Oct 21, 2026 | vsArsenal | T | 1 | 1.21 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @SC Freiburg | W | 3 | 1.28 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsBorussia Dortmund | T | 1 | 1.57 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.14 in 2024-25, plus 0.21 in 2025-26, plus 0.25 in 2026-27 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 83% in 2024-25, 79% in 2025-26, 43% in 2026-27 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- 21 games in 2024-25 and 2025-26 and 2026-27 are neither after a Champions League game nor in other league games, and sit out.