Bologna @ AC Milan

Wed, Oct 28, 2026

Bologna 4, AC Milan 2

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Against a bottom-half team, AC Milan’s expected goals were 1.56 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 0.18 under expected.
At home, AC Milan’s yellow cards were 1.0 under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 2.2 under expected.
Bologna had won 7 of its last 10 on the road.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
Against a top-half team, Bologna’s expected goals were 0.57 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 0.07 over expected.
On the road, Bologna’s yellow cards were 0.9 under expected in 4 games. 4 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 0.0 over expected.

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
“This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 27, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
A game with no box score sits out.