Putting Up Numbers· Soccer

AC Milan @ Genoa

Sun, Nov 8 · Serie A · Stadio Luigi Ferraris

The odds have it Genoa 0.92, AC Milan 1.58.Expected goals from DraftKings’ closing odds on ESPN’s match pages, as of Nov 4. Odds move until kickoff.

AC Milan at Genoa: against expected, a game, this season, All games
a gameAC Milan10 gamesGenoa10 games
+0.49−0.59
−0.35−0.20
+0.02−0.65
−0.29−0.09
−2.3−3.5
−3.8+1.3
+0.66−0.12

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game. Lit is among the ten biggest either way. Tap a row for the games.

Analysis

What’s true going in. Each line says how it stood up; you judge.

The series

  • AC Milan leads the series 21–7–8 since 2007-08. AC Milan has won 4 straight at Genoa.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

  • At home, Genoa’s shots conceded are 2.8 over expected in 6 games. A +5.3 difference in shots conceded over expected at home vs away is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 13 times in 100.thinthe split →
  • On the road, AC Milan’s yellow cards are 0.7 over expected in 5 games. A +1.7 difference in yellow cards over expected away vs at home is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were away and it comes up 6 times in 100.thinthe split →

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
May 17, 2026at GenoaAC Milan 2, Genoa 1
Jan 8, 2026at AC MilanGenoa 1, AC Milan 1
May 5, 2025at GenoaAC Milan 2, Genoa 1
Dec 15, 2024at AC MilanGenoa 0, AC Milan 0
May 5, 2024at AC MilanGenoa 3, AC Milan 3
Oct 7, 2023at GenoaAC Milan 1, Genoa 0
Apr 15, 2022at AC MilanAC Milan 2, Genoa 0
Dec 1, 2021at GenoaAC Milan 3, Genoa 0
Apr 18, 2021at AC MilanAC Milan 2, Genoa 1
Dec 16, 2020at GenoaGenoa 2, AC Milan 2

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • A game with no box score sits out.

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