AC Milan
6–3–1 · Beat Internazionale 3–1, Oct 31
Next: at Genoa, Sun, Nov 8 · analysis
Against the closing odds
AC Milan has beaten the odds in 3 of its last 4, by 0.24 goals a game. Over the season it’s 0.27 a game over, 30th of 110.
last 4
+0.24
before
+0.29
-202
Oct 18, 2026 vs Atalanta +0.07
Oct 25, 2026 @ Udinese +1.22
Oct 28, 2026 vs Bologna −2.80
Oct 31, 2026 vs Internazionale +2.48
Lately
- Won 6 of its last 10count
Aug 23 @ Torino +1
Aug 28 vs Venezia +2
Sep 6 @ Juventus 0
Sep 12 @ Lazio 0
Sep 20 vs Lecce +3
Oct 11 @ Sassuolo 0- Oct 18 vs Atalanta +1
- Oct 25 @ Udinese +2
- Oct 28 vs Bologna −2
- Oct 31 vs Internazionale +2
- Won 5 of its last 10 at homecount
- Mar 21, 2026 vs Torino +1
- Apr 11, 2026 vs Udinese −3
- Apr 26, 2026 vs Juventus 0
- May 10, 2026 vs Atalanta −1
May 24, 2026 vs Cagliari −1- Aug 28 vs Venezia +2
- Sep 20 vs Lecce +3
- Oct 18 vs Atalanta +1
- Oct 28 vs Bologna −2
- Oct 31 vs Internazionale +2
- Won 4 of its last 10 on the roadcount
- Mar 15, 2026 @ Lazio −1
Apr 6, 2026 @ Napoli −1
Apr 19, 2026 @ Hellas Verona +1- May 3, 2026 @ Sassuolo −2
May 17, 2026 @ Genoa +1- Aug 23 @ Torino +1
- Sep 6 @ Juventus 0
- Sep 12 @ Lazio 0
- Oct 11 @ Sassuolo 0
- Oct 25 @ Udinese +2
Against expected,
| a game | attack | defense |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | +0.49 · 20th | −0.35 · 26th |
| Expected goals | +0.02 · 39th | −0.29 · 18th |
| Shots | −2.3 · 73rd | −3.8 · 10th |
| Points | +0.66 · 16th |
Over (+) or under (−) what its opponents usually allow, a game, and where that stands among 96 clubs, the best first. Lit is the top ten or the bottom ten.
Method
- Against the odds is each game’s goal difference less what the closing odds expected, from DraftKings’ closing odds on ESPN’s match pages. A game nobody lined sits out, and a push hasn’t beaten it. Lately is the last 4 games with one.
- Against expected is each game against what the opponent usually gave up in its other games, with half the home edge, averaged. A game against a team with no other game here sits out.