Villarreal @ Valencia

Sat, Oct 24, 2026

Villarreal 2, Valencia 1

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Villarreal’s points were 1.18 lower in the Champions League than in the league against expected over its last 75 games, 29th of 29 teams.fact · rankedthe split →This game: 1.73 over expected.

Villarreal leads the series 22–15–9 since 2002-03. Villarreal has won the last 3.seriesevery meeting →

Against a bottom-half team, Valencia’s shots conceded were 6.5 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 3.5 over expected.
After a Champions League game, Villarreal’s goals were 1.90 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 0.53 over expected.
Against a bottom-half team, Villarreal’s expected goals were 1.03 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 0.12 under expected.

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
“This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 23, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
A game with no box score sits out.