Putting Up Numbers· Soccer

Real Madrid @ Valencia

Sat, Nov 7 · La Liga · Mestalla Stadium

The odds have it Valencia 0.93, Real Madrid 2.53.Expected goals from DraftKings’ closing odds on ESPN’s match pages, as of Nov 4. Odds move until kickoff.

Real Madrid at Valencia: against expected, a game, this season, All games
a gameReal Madrid14 gamesValencia11 games
+1.16−0.87
−0.74−0.10
+0.78−0.49
−0.35+0.03
+3.8−3.2
−1.6+1.7
+1.31−0.56

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game. Lit is among the ten biggest either way. Tap a row for the games.

Analysis

What’s true going in. Each line says how it stood up; you judge.

Real Madrid

  • Real Madrid has won 6 straight.streakthe runs →
  • Real Madrid has won 10 straight at home, tied for the longest active home winning streak in Europe.streakthe runs →

The series

  • Real Madrid leads the series 27–10–11 since 2002-03. Real Madrid has won the last 2.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

  • At home, Valencia’s points are 0.86 under expected in 6 games. A −1.18 difference in points over expected at home vs away is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 19 times in 100.thinthe split →
  • Real Madrid has won 7 of its last 10 on the road.countits form →

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Feb 8, 2026at ValenciaReal Madrid 2, Valencia 0
Nov 1, 2025at Real MadridReal Madrid 4, Valencia 0
Apr 5, 2025at Real MadridValencia 2, Real Madrid 1
Jan 3, 2025at ValenciaReal Madrid 2, Valencia 1
Mar 2, 2024at ValenciaValencia 2, Real Madrid 2
Nov 11, 2023at Real MadridReal Madrid 5, Valencia 1
May 21, 2023at ValenciaValencia 1, Real Madrid 0
Feb 2, 2023at Real MadridReal Madrid 2, Valencia 0
Jan 8, 2022at Real MadridReal Madrid 4, Valencia 1
Sep 19, 2021at ValenciaReal Madrid 2, Valencia 1

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • A game with no box score sits out.

Read next