Valencia
2–3–6 · Beat Elche 1–0, Nov 1
Next: vs Real Madrid, Sat, Nov 7 · analysis
Against the closing odds
Valencia has beaten the odds in 3 of its last 4, by 0.30 goals a game. Over the season it’s 0.39 a game under, 83rd of 110.
last 4
+0.30
before
−0.79
-20
Oct 11, 2026 @ Racing Santander +0.19
Oct 17, 2026 vs Athletic Club +0.23
Oct 24, 2026 vs Villarreal −0.55
Nov 1, 2026 @ Elche +1.34
Lately
- Lost 6 of its last 10count
Aug 25 vs Real Betis −1
Aug 30 @ Deportivo −2
Sep 6 vs Barcelona −5
Sep 11 @ Sevilla −1
Sep 15 @ Alavés +1
Sep 20 vs Real Sociedad −1- Oct 11 @ Racing Santander 0
- Oct 17 vs Athletic Club 0
- Oct 24 vs Villarreal −1
- Nov 1 @ Elche +1
- Won 5 of its last 10 on the roadcount
- Mar 21, 2026 @ Sevilla +2
- Apr 11, 2026 @ Elche −1
Apr 21, 2026 @ Mallorca 0- May 10, 2026 @ Athletic Club +1
- May 17, 2026 @ Real Sociedad +1
- Aug 30 @ Deportivo −2
- Sep 11 @ Sevilla −1
- Sep 15 @ Alavés +1
- Oct 11 @ Racing Santander 0
- Nov 1 @ Elche +1
- Won 2 of its last 10count
- Aug 25 vs Real Betis −1
- Aug 30 @ Deportivo −2
- Sep 6 vs Barcelona −5
- Sep 11 @ Sevilla −1
- Sep 15 @ Alavés +1
- Sep 20 vs Real Sociedad −1
- Oct 11 @ Racing Santander 0
- Oct 17 vs Athletic Club 0
- Oct 24 vs Villarreal −1
- Nov 1 @ Elche +1
Against expected,
| a game | attack | defense |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | −0.87 · 90th | −0.10 · 43rd |
| Expected goals | −0.49 · 87th | +0.03 · 56th |
| Shots | −3.2 · 82nd | +1.7 · 71st |
| Points | −0.56 · 80th |
Over (+) or under (−) what its opponents usually allow, a game, and where that stands among 96 clubs, the best first. Lit is the top ten or the bottom ten.
Method
- Against the odds is each game’s goal difference less what the closing odds expected, from DraftKings’ closing odds on ESPN’s match pages. A game nobody lined sits out, and a push hasn’t beaten it. Lately is the last 4 games with one.
- Against expected is each game against what the opponent usually gave up in its other games, with half the home edge, averaged. A game against a team with no other game here sits out.