Putting Up Numbers· Soccer

Atalanta @ AC Milan

Sun, Oct 18, 2026

AC Milan 3, Atalanta 2

Atalanta at AC Milan: against expected, a game, this season, This game
a gameAtalanta1 gameAC Milan1 game
Goals+0.63+1.29
Goals conceded+1.02+0.45
Expected goals−0.05−0.55
Expected goals conceded−0.38−0.11
Shots+0.7−7.7
Shots conceded−2.5−1.3
Points−0.92+1.50

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

AC Milan

Atalanta

Analysis

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

The series

If you squint

  • At home, AC Milan’s yellow cards were 1.2 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 0.7 under expected.
  • On the road, Atalanta’s shots conceded were 7.4 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 7.2 under expected.

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Oct 18, 2026at AC MilanAC Milan 3, Atalanta 2
May 10, 2026at AC MilanAtalanta 3, AC Milan 2
Oct 28, 2025at AtalantaAC Milan 1, Atalanta 1
Apr 20, 2025at AC MilanAtalanta 1, AC Milan 0
Dec 6, 2024at AtalantaAtalanta 2, AC Milan 1
Feb 25, 2024at AC MilanAC Milan 1, Atalanta 1
Dec 9, 2023at AtalantaAtalanta 3, AC Milan 2
Feb 26, 2023at AC MilanAC Milan 2, Atalanta 0
Aug 21, 2022at AtalantaAC Milan 1, Atalanta 1
May 15, 2022at AC MilanAC Milan 2, Atalanta 0

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 17, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
  • A game with no box score sits out.

Read next