Atalanta
3–2–4 · Drew with Fiorentina 2–2, Oct 29
Next: at Monza, Sun, Nov 8 · analysis
Against the closing odds
Atalanta has beaten the odds in 2 of its last 4, by 0.13 goals a game. Over the season it’s 0.25 a game under, 74th of 110.
last 4
+0.13
before
−0.55
-10
Oct 12, 2026 vs Venezia +0.94
Oct 18, 2026 @ AC Milan −0.07
Oct 25, 2026 vs Frosinone −0.56
Oct 29, 2026 @ Fiorentina +0.21
Lately
- Lost 4 of its last 10count
- May 22, 2026 @ Fiorentina 0
Aug 23 vs Sassuolo +1
Aug 31 vs Bologna +1
Sep 5 @ AS Roma −1
Sep 12 vs Cagliari −1
Sep 20 @ Juventus −2- Oct 12 vs Venezia +2
- Oct 18 @ AC Milan −1
- Oct 25 vs Frosinone 0
- Oct 29 @ Fiorentina 0
- Won 4 of its last 10 at homecount
Mar 10, 2026 vs Bayern Munich −5
Mar 22, 2026 vs Hellas Verona +1- Apr 11, 2026 vs Juventus −1
May 2, 2026 vs Genoa 0- May 17, 2026 vs Bologna −1
- Aug 23 vs Sassuolo +1
- Aug 31 vs Bologna +1
- Sep 12 vs Cagliari −1
- Oct 12 vs Venezia +2
- Oct 25 vs Frosinone 0
- Won 3 of its last 10count
- May 22, 2026 @ Fiorentina 0
- Aug 23 vs Sassuolo +1
- Aug 31 vs Bologna +1
- Sep 5 @ AS Roma −1
- Sep 12 vs Cagliari −1
- Sep 20 @ Juventus −2
- Oct 12 vs Venezia +2
- Oct 18 @ AC Milan −1
- Oct 25 vs Frosinone 0
- Oct 29 @ Fiorentina 0
Against expected,
| a game | attack | defense |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | +0.19 · 30th | +0.34 · 71st |
| Expected goals | −0.13 · 55th | +0.33 · 84th |
| Shots | −0.2 · 48th | +5.5 · 96th |
| Points | −0.21 · 55th |
Over (+) or under (−) what its opponents usually allow, a game, and where that stands among 96 clubs, the best first. Lit is the top ten or the bottom ten.
Method
- Against the odds is each game’s goal difference less what the closing odds expected, from DraftKings’ closing odds on ESPN’s match pages. A game nobody lined sits out, and a push hasn’t beaten it. Lately is the last 4 games with one.
- Against expected is each game against what the opponent usually gave up in its other games, with half the home edge, averaged. A game against a team with no other game here sits out.