Illinois @ Maryland

Sat, Oct 31, 2026

Illinois 20, Maryland 17Illinois was favored by 3, and the game pushed.

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Maryland’s rushing yards were 61.0 lower at home than away against expected over its last 25 games, 134th of 136 teams.fact · rankedthe split →This game: 44.3 under expected.
Maryland had lost 5 straight.streakthe runs →Extended to 6.
Maryland was 6.6 points a game under the closing line this season, 123rd of 136.fact · rankedits form →0.0 against the line this game.

Illinois was 1.1 points a game under the closing line this season, 87th of 136.fact · rankedits form →0.0 against the line this game.

Illinois leads the series 3–2 since 2018. Illinois has won the last 3.seriesevery meeting →

Maryland had failed to cover 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 7 of 11.
Maryland was 1–3 against the line as an underdog this season.countits form →A push.
In a conference game, Maryland’s third-down conversion rate were 18.9% under expected in 4 games. A −40.4% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected in a conference game vs in a nonconference game is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were in a conference game and it comes up 7 times in 100.thinthe split →This game: 3.0% over expected.
At home, Maryland’s points allowed were 13.6 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 14.3 under expected.
Illinois had beaten 7 of its last 10 unranked opponents.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
Illinois was 1–4 against the line as a favorite this season.countits form →A push.
On the road, Illinois’ total yards were 112.4 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 27.2 over expected.

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
“This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 30, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
A game with no box score sits out.