Nebraska @ Illinois

Fri, Nov 6 · Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)

The line has it Nebraska 28, Illinois 23.Nebraska −4.5, total 50.5, as of Nov 3. A line moves until kickoff. The median of the books College Football Data lists, through Streak King.

Nebraska at Illinois: against expected, a game, this season, All games
a game	Nebraska8 games	Illinois8 games
	+6.3	+0.3
	−7.9	+0.4
	+46	+16
	−76	+22
	+1.1	0.0
	−3.0	+13.9
	+13.0%	+6.4%
	+0.5	−1.1
	+18.6	−22.1
	+0.2	−0.5
	−0.2	−0.5

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game. Lit is among the ten biggest either way. Tap a row for the games.

Analysis

What’s true going in. Each line says how it stood up; you judge.

Illinois

Illinois is 0.9 points a game under the closing line this season, 83rd of 136.fact · rankedits form →

Nebraska

Nebraska is 5.0 points a game over the closing line this season, 21st of 136.fact · rankedits form →

The series

Nebraska leads the series 14–7–1 since 1892.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

Illinois has won 7 of its last 10.countits form →
Illinois has won 7 of its last 10 at home.countits form →
Illinois has beaten 7 of its last 10 unranked opponents.countits form →
Without Katin Houser, Illinois’ pass attempts are 16.7 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
Without Kaden Feagin, Illinois’ points are 18.5 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
Since Ca'Lil Valentine’s last game, Illinois’ penalty yards are 28.0 under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
Nebraska is 4–1–1 against the line as a favorite this season.countits form →
Without Jamal Rule, Nebraska’s penalty yards are 71.3 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
On the road, Nebraska’s points allowed are 10.2 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →
At night, Nebraska’s carries are 4.5 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →

Every meeting

Date	Where	Score
Sep 20, 2024	at Nebraska	Illinois 31, Nebraska 24
Oct 6, 2023	at Illinois	Nebraska 20, Illinois 7
Oct 29, 2022	at Nebraska	Illinois 26, Nebraska 9
Aug 28, 2021	at Illinois	Illinois 30, Nebraska 22
Nov 21, 2020	at Nebraska	Illinois 41, Nebraska 23
Sep 21, 2019	at Illinois	Nebraska 42, Illinois 38
Nov 10, 2018	at Nebraska	Nebraska 54, Illinois 35
Sep 29, 2017	at Illinois	Nebraska 28, Illinois 6
Oct 1, 2016	at Nebraska	Nebraska 31, Illinois 16
Oct 3, 2015	at Illinois	Illinois 14, Nebraska 13

Method

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
A game with no box score sits out.