Maryland @ Purdue

Sat, Nov 7 · Ross-Ade Stadium

The line has it Purdue 32, Maryland 25.Purdue −6.5, total 57, as of Nov 3. A line moves until kickoff. The median of the books College Football Data lists, through Streak King.

Maryland at Purdue: against expected, a game, this season, All games
a game	Maryland8 games	Purdue8 games
	−2.5	+5.6
	+8.1	+6.4
	−35	+25
	+20	+64
	−0.3	+0.5
	−20.9	+3.3
	−6.6%	+1.4%
	−0.5	−0.8
	−1.7	−10.8
	−0.1	0.0
	+0.1	−0.2

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game. Lit is among the ten biggest either way. Tap a row for the games.

Analysis

What’s true going in. Each line says how it stood up; you judge.

Purdue

Purdue is 0.8 points a game over the closing line this season, 64th of 136.fact · rankedits form →

Maryland

Maryland has lost 6 straight.streakthe runs →
Maryland is 5.8 points a game under the closing line this season, 121st of 136.fact · rankedits form →

The series

The series is tied 2–2 since 2006. Purdue has won the last 2.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

Purdue has lost 7 of its last 10.countits form →
Purdue has failed to cover 7 of its last 10.countits form →
At home, Purdue’s carries are 4.4 over expected in 4 games. A +14.0 difference in carries over expected at home vs away is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 15 times in 100.thinthe split →
Maryland is 1–3–1 against the line as an underdog this season.countits form →
Without DeJuan Williams, Maryland’s pass attempts are 9.3 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
In a conference game, Maryland’s third-down conversion rate are 14.5% under expected in 5 games. A −35.9% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected in a conference game vs in a nonconference game is unusual: shuffle which games were in a conference game and it comes up 4 times in 100.thinthe split →
On the road, Maryland’s penalty yards are 16.5 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →

Every meeting

Date	Where	Score
Oct 8, 2022	at Maryland	Purdue 31, Maryland 29
Oct 12, 2019	at Purdue	Purdue 40, Maryland 14
Oct 1, 2016	at Maryland	Maryland 50, Purdue 7
Dec 29, 2006	neutral	Maryland 24, Purdue 7

Method

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
A game with no box score sits out.