Maryland’s rushing yards at home and away
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Maryland was 44.2 yards under at home and 15.4 yards over away over its last 25 games, 12 games against 10. The plain averages are 109.6 and 115.8, a difference of 6.2. Expected was 28.6 yards higher at home than away. All 3 night games were at home. Both opponents outside the major colleges were at home.
Maryland’s −59.6 at home vs away over expected ranks 133rd of the 136 teams with 4 games on each side over their last 25 games.
rushing yards a game over expected
at home
−44.2
away
+15.4
0100
A −59.6 difference in rushing yards over expected at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up less than once in 100.
plain
109.6
115.8
100200300
A −6.2 difference in rushing yards at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | rushing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2024 | @ Minnesota | L | 105 | 91.5 | |
| Nov 9, 2024 | @ Oregon | L | 85 | 119.6 | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs Rutgers | L | 122 | 161.1 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Iowa | L | 98 | 126.7 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Penn State | L | 72 | 97.5 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Florida Atlantic | W | 112 | 166.7 | |
| Sep 5, 2025 | vs Northern Illinois | W | 88 | 180.8 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vsTTowson | W | 152 | — | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Wisconsin | W | 61 | 69.4 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs Washington | L | 55 | 77.3 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Nebraska | L | 116 | 138.7 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ UCLA | L | 127 | 127.1 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Indiana | L | 37 | 48.4 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @Rutgers | L | 305 | 134.6 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Illinois | L | 55 | 90.6 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Michigan | L | 71 | 95.3 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vs Michigan State (neutral) | L | 75 | 111.4 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsHHampton | W | 365 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ UConn | W | 125 | 102.1 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Virginia Tech | L | 64 | 119.1 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsUCLA | L | 40 | 112.6 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @Nebraska | L | 141 | 81.0 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Ohio State | L | 82 | 90.7 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vsRutgers | L | 117 | 179.0 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsIllinois | L | 98 | 142.2 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.8 in 2024, plus 5.9 in 2025, plus 8.0 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 75% in 2024, 77% in 2025, 60% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Towson, Hampton have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.