Oklahoma @ 
Mississippi State
Oklahoma 23, Mississippi State 15Oklahoma was favored by 1.5, and Oklahoma covered.
| a game | Oklahoma1 game | Mississippi State1 game |
|---|---|---|
| Points | −4.2 | −11.8 |
| Points allowed | −13.0 | +3.4 |
| Total offense, yards | +112 | +8 |
| Total defense, yards | −56 | +158 |
| Touchdowns | −0.8 | −0.9 |
| Passer rating | +38.0 | −1.9 |
| Third downs | +4.3% | −27.8% |
| Sacks | +1.4 | −1.5 |
| Penalty yards | +15.5 | +34.2 |
| Turnovers forced | +0.8 | −0.2 |
| Turnovers lost | −0.2 | +0.8 |
Who put up numbers
Mississippi State
- Passing yardsParker Puckett158 passing yards
- Passing touchdownsSam West1 passing touchdown
- Rushing yardsFluff Bothwell111 rushing yards
Oklahoma
Analysis
Mississippi State
- Mississippi State’s points were 12.3 lower vs a top-10 opponent than vs an unranked opponent against expected over its last 25 games, 30th of 30 teams.fact · rankedthe split →This game: 13.6 under expected.
- Mississippi State was 2.9 points a game over the closing line this season, 43rd of 136.fact · rankedits form →−6.5 against the line this game.
Oklahoma
- Oklahoma’s pass attempts were 11.7 lower after a bye than on a normal week against expected over its last 25 games, 75th of 75 teams.fact · rankedthe split →This game: 4.1 under expected.
- Oklahoma was 5.8 points a game under the closing line this season, 122nd of 136.fact · rankedits form →+6.5 against the line this game.
The series
- Oklahoma leads the series 1–0 since 2026.seriesevery meeting →
If you squint
- Mississippi State had beaten 7 of its last 10 unranked opponents.countits form →Now 7 of 11.
- At home, Mississippi State’s passing yards were 116.1 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 52.5 under expected.
- Against an unranked opponent, Mississippi State’s points were 18.0 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 13.6 under expected.
- Oklahoma had beaten 7 of its last 10 unranked opponents.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
- Oklahoma was 1–3 against the line as a favorite this season.countits form →Covered.
- On the road, Oklahoma’s third-down conversion rate were 18.1% under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 6.3% over expected.
- In a conference game, Oklahoma’s third-down conversion rate were 11.1% under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 6.3% over expected.
- Against an unranked opponent, Oklahoma’s points allowed were 8.6 under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 13.6 under expected.
Every meeting
| Date | Where | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2026 | at Mississippi State | Oklahoma 23, Mississippi State 15 |
Method
- Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
- “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 23, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
- Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
- A game with no box score sits out.