Oklahoma @ Florida

Sat, Nov 7 · Ben Hill Griffin Stadium · Unranked at No. 25

The line has it Florida 26, Oklahoma 20.Florida −6, total 45, as of Nov 3. A line moves until kickoff. The median of the books College Football Data lists, through Streak King.

Oklahoma at Florida: against expected, a game, this season, All games
a game	Oklahoma8 games	Florida8 games
	−3.0	+8.7
	−6.6	+1.9
	−13	+50
	−67	−6
	−0.8	+1.3
	+10.3	+17.9
	−3.5%	+6.8%
	+0.5	+1.0
	+0.8	+14.9
	+0.2	−0.1
	+0.6	0.0

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game. Lit is among the ten biggest either way. Tap a row for the games.

Analysis

What’s true going in. Each line says how it stood up; you judge.

Florida

Florida is 2.0 points a game under the closing line this season, 92nd of 136.fact · rankedits form →

Oklahoma

Oklahoma’s pass attempts are 12.2 lower after a bye than on a normal week against expected over its last 25 games, 78th of 78 teams.fact · rankedthe split →
Oklahoma is 6.1 points a game under the closing line this season, 125th of 136.fact · rankedits form →

The series

The series is tied 1–1 since 2008.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

Florida has won 7 of its last 10 at home.countits form →
Florida has beaten 7 of its last 10 unranked opponents.countits form →
Florida is 3–3 against the line as a favorite this season.countits form →
Without Eric Singleton Jr., Florida’s penalty yards are 82.4 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
Since Vernell Brown III’s last game, Florida’s points are 12.4 under expected in 4 games. A −34.4 difference in points over expected since Vernell Brown III’s last game vs with Vernell Brown III is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were since Vernell Brown III’s last game and it comes up 6 times in 100.thinwithout him →
Since Aaron Philo’s last game, Florida’s points are 9.7 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
Oklahoma has failed to cover 7 of its last 10.countits form →
Without Tory Blaylock, Oklahoma’s pass attempts are 10.2 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
Without Jonathan Hatton Jr., Oklahoma’s third-down conversion rate are 14.4% under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
Without Xavier Robinson, Oklahoma’s points allowed are 6.4 under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →

Every meeting

Date	Where	Score
Dec 30, 2020	neutral	Oklahoma 55, Florida 20
Jan 8, 2009	neutral	Florida 24, Oklahoma 14

Method

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
A game with no box score sits out.