Mississippi State’s points vs a top-10 opponent and vs an unranked opponent
, ,
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Mississippi State was 6.8 points under vs a top-10 opponent and 4.6 points over vs an unranked opponent over its last 25 games, 5 games against 12. The plain averages are 17.2 and 36.2, a difference of 19.0. All 7 nonconference games were vs an unranked opponent.
Mississippi State’s −11.4 vs a top-10 opponent and vs an unranked opponent over expected ranks 29th of the 31 teams with 4 games on each side over their last 25 games.
points a game over expected
A −11.4 difference in points over expected vs a top-10 opponent and vs an unranked opponent is unusual: shuffle which games were vs a top-10 opponent and it comes up 3 times in 100.
A −19.0 difference in points vs a top-10 opponent and vs an unranked opponent is unusual: shuffle which games were vs a top-10 opponent and it comes up 2 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2024 | vs UMass | W | 45 | 40.3 | |
| Nov 9, 2024 | @ Tennessee | L | 14 | 18.8 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Missouri | L | 20 | 24.6 | |
| Nov 29, 2024 | @ Ole Miss | L | 14 | 18.0 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | @ Southern Miss | W | 34 | 34.8 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Arizona State | W | 24 | 26.1 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Alcorn State | W | 63 | — | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Northern Illinois | W | 38 | 34.6 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vsTennessee | L | 34 | 32.2 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Texas A&M | L | 9 | 24.9 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Florida | L | 21 | 23.1 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs Texas | L | 38 | 22.2 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ Arkansas | W | 38 | 31.8 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Georgia | L | 21 | 22.0 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @Missouri | L | 27 | 21.0 | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | vsOle Miss | L | 19 | 28.7 | |
| Jan 2, 2026 | vs Wake Forest (neutral) | L | 29 | 26.6 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Louisiana Monroe | W | 62 | 36.9 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Minnesota | W | 38 | 25.3 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ South Carolina | W | 41 | 24.9 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsMissouri | W | 31 | 22.3 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Alabama | L | 23 | 25.5 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ LSU | L | 0 | 24.9 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Oklahoma | L | 15 | 28.6 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @Texas | L | 3 | 22.7 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.5 in 2024, plus 1.5 in 2025, plus 1.9 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 75% in 2024, 78% in 2025, 66% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Alcorn State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.