Vanderbilt @ Mississippi State

Sat, Nov 7 · Davis Wade Stadium

The line has it Mississippi State 26, Vanderbilt 23.Mississippi State −3, total 48.5, as of Nov 3. A line moves until kickoff. The median of the books College Football Data lists, through Streak King.

Vanderbilt at Mississippi State: against expected, a game, this season, All games
a game	Vanderbilt8 games	Mississippi State8 games
	−5.1	+2.3
	+6.3	+0.6
	−52	+66
	+18	+1
	−0.7	+0.8
	−9.2	+20.0
	+2.3%	+3.4%
	−0.6	+0.6
	+8.5	+14.5
	−0.2	−0.3
	+0.7	+0.1

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game. Lit is among the ten biggest either way. Tap a row for the games.

Analysis

What’s true going in. Each line says how it stood up; you judge.

Mississippi State

Mississippi State has failed to cover 4 straight.streakthe runs →
Mississippi State has lost 4 straight.streakthe runs →
Mississippi State is 0.4 points a game over the closing line this season, 68th of 136.fact · rankedits form →

Vanderbilt

Vanderbilt has lost 5 straight.streakthe runs →
Vanderbilt is 7.9 points a game under the closing line this season, 133rd of 136, and 10.7 better away than at home over its last 25, 4th of 136.fact · rankedits form →

The series

Mississippi State leads the series 15–7–2 since 1904. Mississippi State has won the last 5. Mississippi State has won 8 straight at home in the series.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

Without Fluff Bothwell, Mississippi State’s points are 24.9 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
Since Kamario Taylor’s last game, Mississippi State’s points are 19.4 under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
Since Isaac Smith’s last game, Mississippi State’s points are 16.7 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
Vanderbilt has covered 8 of its last 10 on the road.countits form →
Vanderbilt has beaten 7 of its last 10 unranked opponents.countits form →
Vanderbilt is 2–2 against the line as an underdog this season.countits form →
Without Jared Curtis, Vanderbilt’s pass attempts are 7.5 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
On the road, Vanderbilt’s points allowed are 5.7 under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →
Against an unranked opponent, Vanderbilt’s third-down conversion rate are 6.1% under expected in 4 games. A −18.8% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected vs an unranked opponent and vs a ranked opponent is unusual: shuffle which games were vs an unranked opponent and it comes up 3 times in 100.thinthe split →

Every meeting

Date	Where	Score
Oct 23, 2021	at Vanderbilt	Mississippi State 45, Vanderbilt 6
Nov 7, 2020	at Mississippi State	Mississippi State 24, Vanderbilt 17
Nov 22, 2014	at Mississippi State	Mississippi State 51, Vanderbilt 0
Sep 19, 2009	at Vanderbilt	Mississippi State 15, Vanderbilt 3
Oct 11, 2008	at Mississippi State	Mississippi State 17, Vanderbilt 14
Oct 2, 2004	at Vanderbilt	Vanderbilt 31, Mississippi State 13
Oct 4, 2003	at Mississippi State	Mississippi State 30, Vanderbilt 21
Oct 2, 1999	at Vanderbilt	Mississippi State 42, Vanderbilt 14
Sep 5, 1998	at Mississippi State	Mississippi State 42, Vanderbilt 0
Sep 2, 1989	at Mississippi State	Mississippi State 42, Vanderbilt 7

Method

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
A game with no box score sits out.