Oklahoma’s pass attempts after a bye and on a normal week
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Oklahoma was 11.0 pass attempts under after a bye and 1.1 pass attempts over on a normal week over its last 25 games, 4 games against 17. The plain averages are 22.0 and 32.6, a difference of 10.6.
Oklahoma’s −12.2 after a bye vs on a normal week over expected ranks 78th of the 78 teams with 4 games on each side over their last 25 games.
pass attempts a game over expected
after a bye
−11.0
on a normal week
+1.1
-20-10010
A −12.2 difference in pass attempts over expected after a bye vs on a normal week is rare: shuffle which games were after a bye and it comes up less than once in 100.
plain
22.0
32.6
203040
A −10.6 difference in pass attempts after a bye vs on a normal week is rare: shuffle which games were after a bye and it comes up less than once in 100.
The games
after a byeon a normal week
| Side | Date | Game | Result | pass attempts | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2024 | @ Missouri | L | 26 | 28.9 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Alabama | W | 12 | 32.1 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ LSU | L | 22 | 30.4 | |
| Dec 27, 2024 | vs Navy (neutral) | L | 44 | 29.8 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Illinois State | W | 37 | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Michigan | W | 34 | 32.9 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Temple | W | 37 | 28.9 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Auburn | W | 36 | 31.5 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs Kent State | W | 27 | 35.3 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Texas (neutral) | L | 39 | 34.7 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ South Carolina | W | 27 | 32.8 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs Ole Miss | L | 31 | 32.6 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ Tennessee | W | 29 | 34.2 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @Alabama | W | 23 | 31.8 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vsMissouri | W | 30 | 30.3 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsLSU | W | 38 | 31.7 | |
| Dec 19, 2025 | vsAlabama | L | 41 | 29.1 | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | vs UTEP | W | 19 | 29.2 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @Michigan | L | 33 | 27.6 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs New Mexico | W | 25 | 28.9 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Georgia | L | 34 | 31.1 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vsTexas (neutral) | W | 26 | 32.8 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Kentucky | L | 41 | 34.4 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Mississippi State | W | 29 | 33.1 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsSouth Carolina | L | 43 | 30.4 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 0.4 in 2024, minus 0.3 in 2025, minus 0.1 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 73% in 2024, 73% in 2025, 60% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- 4 games in 2024 and 2025 and 2026 are neither after a bye nor on a normal week, and sit out.