Putting Up Numbers· college football

Wake Forest @ NC State

Sat, Oct 10, 2026

Wake Forest 38, NC State 14Wake Forest was favored by 4, and Wake Forest covered.

Wake Forest at NC State: against expected, a game, this season, This game
a gameWake Forest1 gameNC State1 game
Points+14.1−10.7
Points allowed−18.1+7.3
Total offense, yards+11−107
Total defense, yards−159−18
Touchdowns+1.9−0.8
Passer rating+41.1+0.9
Third downs+17.2%+3.2%
Sacks+1.4−0.9
Penalty yards−2.6−26.7
Turnovers forced−0.2−1.3
Turnovers lost−1.2−0.1

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

NC State

Wake Forest

Analysis

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

NC State

  • NC State had won 7 straight at home.streakthe runs →Ended here.
  • NC State was 4.4 points a game over the closing line this season, 39th of 136.fact · rankedits form →−20.0 against the line this game.

Wake Forest

  • Wake Forest’s passing yards were 88.5 lower vs a ranked opponent than vs an unranked opponent against expected over its last 25 games, 77th of 78 teams.fact · rankedthe split →This game: 44.0 over expected.
  • Wake Forest had beaten 4 straight unranked teams.streakthe runs →Extended to 5.
  • Wake Forest was 11.0 points a game over the closing line this season, 10th of 136.fact · rankedits form →+20.0 against the line this game.

The series

If you squint

  • NC State had won 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 7 of 11.
  • NC State had beaten 7 of its last 10 unranked opponents.countits form →Now 7 of 11.
  • At home, NC State’s third-down conversion rate were 20.2% over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 0.4% under expected.
  • In a conference game, NC State’s penalty yards were 16.5 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 24.4 under expected.
  • Wake Forest had won 8 of its last 10.countits form →Now 9 of 11.
  • Wake Forest had covered 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
  • On the road, Wake Forest’s pass attempts were 8.6 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 2.9 over expected.
  • Against an unranked opponent, Wake Forest’s third-down conversion rate were 10.1% over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 13.2% over expected.
  • In a conference game, Wake Forest’s carries were 4.2 under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 1.6 under expected.

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Oct 10, 2026at NC StateWake Forest 38, NC State 14
Sep 11, 2025at Wake ForestNC State 34, Wake Forest 24
Oct 5, 2024at NC StateWake Forest 34, NC State 30
Nov 11, 2023at Wake ForestNC State 26, Wake Forest 6
Nov 5, 2022at NC StateNC State 30, Wake Forest 21
Nov 13, 2021at Wake ForestWake Forest 45, NC State 42
Sep 19, 2020at NC StateNC State 45, Wake Forest 42
Nov 2, 2019at Wake ForestWake Forest 44, NC State 10
Nov 8, 2018at NC StateWake Forest 27, NC State 23
Nov 18, 2017at Wake ForestWake Forest 30, NC State 24

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 9, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
  • Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
  • A game with no box score sits out.

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