Duke @ NC State

Sat, Nov 7 · Carter-Finley Stadium

The line has it Duke 28, NC State 24.Duke −4.5, total 51.5, as of Nov 3. A line moves until kickoff. The median of the books College Football Data lists, through Streak King.

Duke at NC State: against expected, a game, this season, All games
a game	Duke8 games	NC State8 games
	−0.9	−2.4
	−8.5	+4.2
	−6	−33
	−50	+30
	−0.2	−0.1
	−5.2	−1.2
	−2.9%	+8.9%
	+0.6	−0.8
	+17.9	−7.5
	+0.1	−0.2
	−0.5	+0.1

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game. Lit is among the ten biggest either way. Tap a row for the games.

Analysis

What’s true going in. Each line says how it stood up; you judge.

NC State

NC State is 0.4 points a game over the closing line this season, 68th of 136.fact · rankedits form →

Duke

Duke has won 4 straight as the underdog, tied for the longest active winning streak as the underdog in FBS.streakthe runs →
Duke is 9.4 points a game over the closing line this season, 6th of 136.fact · rankedits form →

The series

Duke leads the series 44–37–5 since 1924. Duke has won the last 3.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

NC State has won 8 of its last 10 at home.countits form →
NC State has covered 7 of its last 10 at home.countits form →
NC State is 1–3 against the line as an underdog this season.countits form →
Since Jayden Scott’s last game, NC State’s rushing yards are 50.3 under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
Without Jamel Johnson, NC State’s points allowed are 7.7 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
In a conference game, NC State’s rushing yards are 45.3 under expected in 5 games. A −117.6 difference in rushing yards over expected in a conference game vs in a nonconference game is unusual: shuffle which games were in a conference game and it comes up 5 times in 100.thinthe split →
Duke has won 8 of its last 10.countits form →
Duke has beaten 8 of its last 10 unranked opponents.countits form →
Duke has covered 7 of its last 10.countits form →
Duke is 4–2 against the line as a favorite this season.countits form →
Without Javen Nicholas, Duke’s passing yards are 88.4 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
On the road, Duke’s carries are 6.8 under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →
In a conference game, Duke’s passing yards are 33.0 over expected in 5 games. A +121.4 difference in passing yards over expected in a conference game vs in a nonconference game is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were in a conference game and it comes up 9 times in 100.thinthe split →

Every meeting

Date	Where	Score
Sep 20, 2025	at Duke	Duke 45, NC State 33
Nov 9, 2024	at NC State	Duke 29, NC State 19
Oct 14, 2023	at Duke	Duke 24, NC State 3
Oct 17, 2020	at NC State	NC State 31, Duke 20
Nov 9, 2013	at Duke	Duke 38, NC State 20
Oct 10, 2009	at NC State	Duke 49, NC State 28
Nov 8, 2008	at Duke	NC State 27, Duke 17
Oct 25, 2003	at Duke	NC State 28, Duke 21
Oct 19, 2002	at NC State	NC State 24, Duke 22
Nov 3, 2001	at Duke	NC State 55, Duke 31

Method

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
A game with no box score sits out.