Wake Forest’s passing yards vs a ranked opponent and vs an unranked opponent
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Wake Forest was 62.7 yards under vs a ranked opponent and 24.2 yards over vs an unranked opponent over its last 25 games, 5 games against 19. The plain averages are 186.6 and 261.9, a difference of 75.3. Both games while ranked were vs an unranked opponent. All 7 nonconference games were vs an unranked opponent.
Wake Forest’s −86.8 vs a ranked opponent and vs an unranked opponent over expected ranks 76th of the 77 teams with 4 games on each side over their last 25 games.
passing yards a game over expected
A −86.8 difference in passing yards over expected vs a ranked opponent and vs an unranked opponent is rare: shuffle which games were vs a ranked opponent and it comes up less than once in 100.
A −75.3 difference in passing yards vs a ranked opponent and vs an unranked opponent is rare: shuffle which games were vs a ranked opponent and it comes up once in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | passing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2024 | vs California | L | 274 | 218.2 | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ North Carolina | L | 240 | 248.7 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Miami (FL) | L | 99 | 229.1 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Duke | L | 207 | 221.5 | |
| Aug 29, 2025 | vs Kennesaw State | W | 218 | 243.4 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Western Carolina | W | 269 | — | |
| Sep 11, 2025 | vs NC State | L | 252 | 262.6 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs Georgia Tech | L | 233 | 229.7 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Virginia Tech | W | 256 | 208.2 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Oregon State | W | 270 | 214.2 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs SMU | W | 216 | 252.3 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ Florida State | L | 162 | 201.1 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Virginia | W | 64 | 220.9 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vsNorth Carolina | W | 191 | 215.6 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Delaware | W | 314 | 260.1 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @Duke | L | 342 | 249.0 | |
| Jan 2, 2026 | vs Mississippi State (neutral) | W | 303 | 212.4 | |
| Sep 3, 2026 | vs Akron | W | 356 | 278.9 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Purdue | W | 225 | 265.6 | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | vsMiami (FL) | L | 312 | 298.1 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Louisville | W | 225 | 268.5 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Stanford | W | 322 | 261.9 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @NC State | W | 303 | 259.0 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @California | W | 289 | 225.7 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsVirginia | W | 229 | 211.3 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 2.3 in 2024, plus 1.8 in 2025, plus 4.1 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 72% in 2024, 68% in 2025, 59% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Western Carolina has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.