Wake Forest @ SMU

Sat, Nov 14 · Gerald J. Ford Stadium · No. 14 at unranked

No line yet.

Wake Forest at SMU: against expected, a game, this season, All games
a game	Wake Forest8 games	SMU8 games
	+10.9	+3.6
	−9.8	−1.7
	+61	+64
	−68	−63
	+1.4	+0.7
	+34.6	+29.1
	+10.0%	+5.2%
	+0.4	+0.5
	+22.3	+12.8
	−0.6	−0.7
	−0.9	+0.4

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game. Lit is among the ten biggest either way. Tap a row for the games.

Analysis

What’s true going in. Each line says how it stood up; you judge.

SMU

SMU has won 9 straight at home.streakthe runs →
SMU is 2.3 points a game under the closing line this season, 95th of 136.fact · rankedits form →

Wake Forest

Wake Forest has covered 6 straight.streakthe runs →
Wake Forest has won 4 straight on the road.streakthe runs →
Wake Forest has beaten 7 straight unranked teams.streakthe runs →
Wake Forest has won 4 straight by 10 or more.streakthe runs →
Wake Forest has won 5 straight.streakthe runs →
Wake Forest is 16.3 points a game over the closing line this season, 1st of 136.fact · rankedits form →

The series

SMU leads the series 3–1 since 1949.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

SMU has won 7 of its last 10.countits form →
Without Yannick Smith, SMU’s passing yards are 182.5 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
Since Dramekco Green’s last game, SMU’s third-down conversion rate are 10.1% under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
Against a ranked opponent, SMU’s rushing yards are 144.9 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →
Without Jamar Searcy, Wake Forest’s carries are 6.1 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
After a bye, Wake Forest’s carries are 18.2 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →

Every meeting

Date	Where	Score
Oct 25, 2025	at Wake Forest	Wake Forest 13, SMU 12
Sep 6, 1975	at Wake Forest	SMU 14, Wake Forest 7
Sep 16, 1972	at SMU	SMU 56, Wake Forest 10
Sep 24, 1949	at SMU	SMU 13, Wake Forest 7

Method

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
A game with no box score sits out.