Illinois @ Michigan State

Sat, Oct 10, 2026

Illinois 38, Michigan State 37Illinois was favored by 2.5, and Michigan State covered.

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Michigan State was 1.9 points a game under the closing line this season, 86th of 136, and 7.2 worse at home than away over its last 25, 127th of 136.fact · rankedits form →+1.5 against the line this game.

Illinois was 5.5 points a game under the closing line this season, 109th of 136.fact · rankedits form →−1.5 against the line this game.

Michigan State leads the series 26–21–2 since 1955. Illinois has won the last 4.seriesevery meeting →

Michigan State had lost 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
In a conference game, Michigan State’s points were 12.1 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 15.5 over expected.
At home, Michigan State’s third-down conversion rate were 7.5% over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 19.4% over expected.
Illinois was 1–3 against the line as a favorite this season.countits form →Didn’t cover.
On the road, Illinois’ total yards were 166.8 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 58.1 over expected.
Against an unranked opponent, Illinois’ carries were 7.4 under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 0.4 over expected.
In a conference game, Illinois’ pass attempts were 6.5 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 9.9 over expected.

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
“This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 9, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
A game with no box score sits out.