Michigan State @ 
Michigan
The line has it Michigan 27, Michigan State 13.Michigan −13.5, total 39.5, as of Nov 3. A line moves until kickoff. The median of the books College Football Data lists, through Streak King.
| a game | Michigan State8 games | Michigan8 games |
|---|---|---|
| −3.5 | −4.5 | |
| −2.0 | −7.5 | |
| −61 | −49 | |
| −29 | −101 | |
| −0.4 | −0.5 | |
| −8.4 | −11.8 | |
| −0.3% | +5.2% | |
| −0.2 | −0.1 | |
| −13.7 | +7.4 | |
| −0.6 | −0.1 | |
| +0.1 | +0.4 |
Analysis
Michigan
- Michigan is 5.5 points a game under the closing line this season, 119th of 136.fact · rankedits form →
Michigan State
- Michigan State has lost 6 straight.streakthe runs →
- Michigan State is 0.6 points a game under the closing line this season, 78th of 136, and 7.3 better away than at home over its last 25, 10th of 136.fact · rankedits form →
The series
- Michigan leads the series 75–38–5 since 1898. Michigan has won the last 4.seriesevery meeting →
If you squint
- Michigan has beaten 9 of its last 10 unranked opponents.countits form →
- Michigan has failed to cover 7 of its last 10.countits form →
- Michigan has won 7 of its last 10 at home.countits form →
- Michigan is 1–5 against the line as a favorite this season.countits form →
- Since John Henry Daley’s last game, Michigan’s third-down conversion rate are 32.7% over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
- Since Bryce Underwood’s last game, Michigan’s carries are 7.6 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
- At night, Michigan’s carries are 15.2 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →
- Michigan State is 3–3 against the line as an underdog this season.countits form →
- Without Brandon Tullis, Michigan State’s pass attempts are 11.2 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
- Since Alessio Milivojevic’s last game, Michigan State’s total yards are 128.8 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinwithout him →
- Since Cam Edwards’ last game, Michigan State’s carries are 4.2 under expected in 4 games. A −8.2 difference in carries over expected since Cam Edwards’ last game vs with Cam Edwards is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were since Cam Edwards’ last game and it comes up 15 times in 100.thinwithout him →
Every meeting
| Date | Where | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2025 | at Michigan State | Michigan 31, Michigan State 20 |
| Oct 26, 2024 | at Michigan | Michigan 24, Michigan State 17 |
| Oct 21, 2023 | at Michigan State | Michigan 49, Michigan State 0 |
| Oct 29, 2022 | at Michigan | Michigan 29, Michigan State 7 |
| Oct 30, 2021 | at Michigan State | Michigan State 37, Michigan 33 |
| Oct 31, 2020 | at Michigan | Michigan State 27, Michigan 24 |
| Nov 16, 2019 | at Michigan | Michigan 44, Michigan State 10 |
| Oct 20, 2018 | at Michigan State | Michigan 21, Michigan State 7 |
| Oct 7, 2017 | at Michigan | Michigan State 14, Michigan 10 |
| Oct 29, 2016 | at Michigan State | Michigan 32, Michigan State 23 |
Method
- Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
- Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
- A game with no box score sits out.