Putting Up Numbers· college football

South Florida @ UTSA

Thu, Oct 8, 2026

UTSA 31, South Florida 24UTSA was favored by 5.5, and UTSA covered.

South Florida at UTSA: against expected, a game, this season, This game
a gameSouth Florida1 gameUTSA1 game
Points−1.4+10.6
Points allowed−0.5+0.8
Total offense, yards−85+161
Total defense, yards+91−18
Touchdowns+0.1+0.8
Passer rating−12.7−13.5
Third downs−11.0%+19.2%
Sacks+0.4−2.4
Penalty yards−24.1+20.5
Turnovers forced−1.2−1.3
Turnovers lost−1.3−1.2

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

UTSA

South Florida

Analysis

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

UTSA

  • UTSA’s points were 23.1 higher at home than away against expected over its last 25 games, 1st of 136 teams.fact · rankedthe split →This game: 5.2 over expected.
  • UTSA had beaten 5 straight unranked teams.streakthe runs →Extended to 6.
  • UTSA was 0.5 points a game over the closing line this season, 67th of 136, and 18.4 better at home than away over its last 25, 1st of 136.fact · rankedits form →+1.5 against the line this game.

South Florida

  • South Florida’s total yards were 150.1 higher in a conference game than in a nonconference game against expected over its last 25 games, 1st of 134 teams.fact · rankedthe split →This game: 11.1 over expected.
  • South Florida was 2.5 points a game under the closing line this season, 91st of 136.fact · rankedits form →−1.5 against the line this game.

The series

If you squint

  • UTSA had won 8 of its last 10 at home.countits form →Now 9 of 11.
  • UTSA had won 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
  • UTSA had covered 7 of its last 10 at home.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
  • At night, UTSA’s points were 23.0 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 5.2 over expected.
  • At home, UTSA’s points allowed were 18.0 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 5.8 over expected.
  • Against an unranked opponent, UTSA’s penalty yards were 11.4 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 13.0 over expected.
  • South Florida had won 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 7 of 11.
  • On the road, South Florida’s penalty yards were 24.7 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 23.9 under expected.
  • In a conference game, South Florida’s carries were 5.1 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 4.6 under expected.
  • At night, South Florida’s points of margin were 9.5 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 2.1 over expected.

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Oct 8, 2026at UTSAUTSA 31, South Florida 24
Nov 6, 2025at South FloridaSouth Florida 55, UTSA 23
Nov 17, 2023at UTSAUTSA 49, South Florida 21

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 7, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
  • Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
  • A game with no box score sits out.

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