UTSA’s points at home and away
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, UTSA was 13.2 points over at home and 7.9 points under away over its last 25 games, 11 games against 11. The plain averages are 45.5 and 22.6, a difference of 22.8. All 3 ranked opponents were away. Both opponents outside the major colleges were at home.
UTSA’s +21.1 at home vs away over expected ranks 1st of the 136 teams with 4 games on each side over their last 25 games.
points a game over expected
at home
+13.2
away
−7.9
-20020
A +21.1 difference in points over expected at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up less than once in 100.
plain
45.5
22.6
204060
A +22.8 difference in points at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up less than once in 100.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 15, 2024 | vs North Texas | W | 48 | 34.7 | |
| Nov 22, 2024 | vs Temple | W | 51 | 33.9 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Army | L | 24 | 20.3 | |
| Dec 23, 2024 | vs Coastal Carolina | W | 44 | 32.6 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | @ Texas A&M | L | 24 | 23.2 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Texas State | L | 36 | 40.8 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vsIIncarnate Word | W | 48 | — | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Colorado State | W | 17 | 38.0 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @Temple | L | 21 | 37.5 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Rice | W | 61 | 34.1 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @North Texas | L | 17 | 37.0 | |
| Oct 30, 2025 | vs Tulane | W | 48 | 26.0 | |
| Nov 6, 2025 | @ South Florida | L | 23 | 29.0 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Charlotte | W | 28 | 39.3 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs East Carolina | W | 58 | 24.6 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsArmy | L | 24 | 28.3 | |
| Dec 26, 2025 | vs Florida International (neutral) | W | 57 | 35.1 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsUUT Rio Grande Valley | W | 45 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @Texas State | W | 31 | 32.1 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Texas | L | 6 | 17.9 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsColorado State | W | 59 | 41.4 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @Rice | W | 16 | 39.0 | |
| Oct 8, 2026 | vsSouth Florida | W | 31 | 25.8 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Navy | W | 38 | 30.6 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @Tulane | W | 42 | 23.0 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.5 in 2024, plus 1.5 in 2025, plus 1.9 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 75% in 2024, 78% in 2025, 66% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Incarnate Word, UT Rio Grande Valley have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.